The Timberpuppies are going to have some coin to spend on a free agent next year. Who is on the market? Let's take a look.
Restricted free agents of note:
- Josh Smith (F- Atlanta)
- Emeka Okafor (F- Charlotte)
- Loul Deng (F- Chicago)
- Ben Gordon (G- Chicago)
- Andre Iguodala (F- Philly)
- Monta Ellis (G- Golden State)
- Josh Childress (G/F- Atlanta)
Unrestricted free agents of note:
- Gilbert Arenas (G- Washington)
- Ron Artest (F- Sacramento)
- Antawn Jameson (F- Washington)
- Corey Magettee (F- LA Clippers)
- Matt Barnes (F- Golden State)
- Chris Duhon (G- Chicago)
Possible entries into free agency:
- Shawn Marion (F- Phoenix)
- Jermaine O'Neal (F- Indiana)
- Baron Davis (G- Golden State)
- Elton Brand (F- LA Clippers)
- Allen Iverson (G- Denver)
Our beloved puppies have two glaring needs: a big man who can play along side of Jefferson and a true point guard. Taking into account signing our own free agents and possible buyouts, the Wolves could have about $9-10 million/year to spend on free agents (this is the most optimistic assessment; it could go higher or lower depending on buyouts, trades, and re-signings). While there has been a lot of talk about the team going gung-ho with youth and cap room, this really isn't a lot of money to throw around; surely it isn't enough to address both main needs with top-notch free agents. This gives the Wolves 3 routes of dealing with 2008 free agency:
- Put all of your eggs in one basket. Throw all of your money at a single free agent and hope for the best in the draft.
- Target 2 middle of the road free agents and hope that the Wolves' front office can identify serviceable NBA talent.
- Hold off on the 2008 class; maybe sign one mid-level guy and wait for the salaries to really clear the board in the 09/10 cycle.
If the team goes with route 1, let's immediately take Marion, O'Neal, Davis, Brand, Iverson, and Arenas off the table. Too much dinero senor. Keep in mind that the Wolves need to buy some folks out to have this money on the table. Walker, Buckner, Jaric, and Madsen are sucking up money that could be spent in this very nice free agent season. If the Wolves do decide to go the one player route, here are the players that are theoretically in their range (with current salary or 2008 qualifying offer "QO" in parentheses):
- Corey Maggette ($7,840,000)
- Josh Smith ($3,167,882 QO)
- Emeka Okafor ($7,082,635 QO)
- Luol Deng ($4,452,574 QO)
- Ben Gordon ($6,404,749 QO)
- Andre Iguodala ($3,800,625 QO)
- Monta Ellis ( $770,610)
- Chris Duhon ($3,248,000)
- Josh Childress ($4,844,355 QO)
As you may notice, there's not really an Al's Big Buddy type of player in this affordable mix. While the free agent class may be deep, it doesn't have an affordable option for inside help unless you want to take a shot at another PF in Okafor. This, however, isn't likely; Okafor and Iguodala will likely ask for (and get) Dwight Howard-esque money: 5 years, $85 million. Sorry, $17 mil/year ain't in our wheel house (nor is the $12-15 that they could "settle" for.) Deng has also turned down a 5 year, $50 million offer from the Bulls. He's likely upwards of $12 million as well. Ditto for Gordon. That leaves us with Maggette, Smith, Childress, Ellis, and Duhon (along with a few other "bargains").
The problem here is that route 2 (target 2 lesser-name free agents) will be prohibitive simply because of the fact there are so many good players on the market and there will be other teams with money to spend. Players like Ellis and Barnes are going to get paid Troy Hudson-esque money. Furthermore, it will be hard to convince 1, let alone 2 players, that they should come play for a team that will be in the basement of the NBA.
That being said, I think your route 1 option is to take a big run at Josh Smith. The guy is young and on the verge of stardom. He's has 20/10/5 kind of potential (he also blocks shots and gets steals). Atlanta will likely match but if you can get rid of some dead weight (cough...Tubby McThreeball...cough) you may be able to overpay enough where Atlanta will balk at signing a relatively unproven talent. Granted, this guy is neither a point or an Al's Big Buddy, but he's good enough to take your chances. You then move on and hope for either a point or a big man in the draft. Mark my words: Josh Smith will be the long term star of this free agent class.
If you roll with option 2/3, I think you take your shot with Chris Duhon at the point and...well, option 1 seems pretty good about now. Duhon is serviceable from behind the line and averages nearly 5 apg in 26 minutes. However, he likely isn't a significant upgrade over any guard currently on the roster and he doesn't bring a lot of value.
More to follow.
UPDATE: Cap methodology is listed in the comments. I figured 2 out of 4 vet contract buyouts/trades and 2 out of 5 expiring contract resignings.
UPDATE ii: I should have been clearer in the post, but these scenarios are dealing with if the Wolves become free agent players this year; not whether or not they should. I'll get to the should question in a later post; as well as another post that breaks down further free agency options for this year (BTW: I think wd has an outstanding breakdown of realistic free agency options here). If they go for a free agent this year, they will have to clear some cap space with buy outs and not extend contract offers to a large chunk of their younger players (Green, Telfair, Smith, Richard, and Gomes all have to be considered as possible non-signings.)
Hope you don't mind the
Hope you don't mind the coding added. Let me know.
As far as free agents, I think there's slim to no chance that we'll make a run at anyone next year. With about $51 mill on the books, Craiggers, Gomes, Telfair, Green and Richard up for free agency (we won't let ALL of those guys walk), it's going to be really tough to squeeze a cornerstone free agent in there.
And as far as Josh Smith, he may be good, but I want him nowhere near the Wolves. I just heard that he was cussing out Tyronn Lue on the floor for not getting him the ball enough and then telling the coach to yank him; all so he could break plays to try and get himself shots. Nice. Yeah, he's sick, but he seems like an immature douchebag too.
I'd rather keep Brewer, Gomes, Craig and Al manning the 3 and 4 down the road.
No problem with the coding.
No problem with the coding. I'm still trying to figure all the tags out.
I added this up as 2 out of the 4 vet contracts getting bought out or traded, and 2 of the 5 you mentioned getting re-signed (Gomes is really the only true keeper). Ideally, if I were running the ship, I'd try to buy Toine out for between 7-8, deferred over 3 years against the cap. I think you could get him in this ball park; although it may be tough because he's rapidly declining in ability and (minimal) use...even to a contender). Let's say 7.5 over 3 years. I think you could try Marko for 5 and spread it over 2 (he could get a contract elsewhere), and Buckner for 4 over 2. Cap hits next year for these 3 guys would be 7 million compared to the 20+ they would normally gobble up. I think it is an imperative to get these 3 off the roster ASAP and that they get bought out or moved without taking on additional salary.
After that, you have 2.8 for Foye, 2.8 for Brewer, 11 for Jefferson, 2.6 for Madsen, and 2.6 for McCants. I say screw Telfair, Green and Richard, offer 2.0 to Smith and give Gomes what he wants up to 4-5 (depending on performance this year...if it's not up to snuff, then 2-3...4-5 is high but I think we'll be surprised by him and I'm trying to be on the high end with these numbers). Or, it could be the other way around. (Or, if Green or Telfair play well, you sub one of them for either Gomes or Smith). Even though I said screw him, ideally Richard sort of works out because he'd be super cheap.
That's 28.8 without Smith and Gomes and 35 with the high end. Let's give another 5 to my buy outs and we're at 40 with 16 to spend. Figure in 4 mil for rookies (1st and 2nd) and we have 12.
Roster then:
1- Jefferson
2- Foye
3- Brewer
4- Madsen
5- McCants
6- Gomes
7- 2 of the 5 you make offers to
8- 2 of the 5 you make offers to
9- 1st round draft pick.
10- 2nd round draft pick
11- chump (Richard?)
12- Free agent
The PG situation on this team needs to be resolved ASAP. We will likely have a top 3 pick next year and you could be looking at Rose or Mayo. I hope and pray and hope and pray for Rose. Whatever happens, you either need a point in free agency and a bigger guy in the draft of vice versa.
I'm all about Josh Smith. I don't care if he's the biggest a-hole on the planet as long as he can put it in the basket. I'm tired of nice guys here in Minnesota. Look at the Vikings. We get Jim Kleinsasser and Chad Greenway because we want nice guys. Same thing with Madsen. No more nice guys. If he can go 20/10 from the 3 spot, bring him in and let's do this!!!
My dream starting 5 next year is this:
1- Derrick Rose
2- Randy Foye (combo guard)
3- Josh Smith
4- Al Jefferson
5-We're screwed on this one
Shad, Brewer, and Gomes are the first ones off the bench. You go up tempo; in and out up and down. You'd have a young, athletic, and exciting club. I think Rose and Smith could be problematic for other teams on the perimeter. This would open up the middle for Big Al.
PS: I know I'm a homer on
PS: I know I'm a homer on the Rose stuff. He has to prove it in college. You could wait for the restricted free agent class of the 2005 draft (Paul, Williams) but I want to get the point here ASAP. The best thing about the Wolves sucking like they do is that ANY talent they add can't be a bad thing. That being said, I'd like for it to go along with a long term plan. I think a core group of Jefferson and Smith could get you a long way for a long time.
Glad to see someone else
Glad to see someone else shares my man crush for Rose, and at this point in the season, we look like the odds on favorite to snag him if the ping pong balls cooperate. Although I do wake up with night sweats, having nightmares about McHale picking this Love stiff outta UCLA. I can hear McHale now.... "He's just a banger in there, and plays tough in the paint...."
Rose will be THE point gaurd in the upcoming draft, and though Mayo has been WAY overhyped, if we lost out on Rose, i'd take him in a heartbeat with the hopes that he could fix the point gaurd situation.
If you think about it, the odds are pretty f-ing good we could get one of those 2, but Rose has 3 time all-star potential.
I'm not sure where you think
I'm not sure where you think this cap space is going to come from?
wd's salary breakdown of guaranteed salaries for 2008 puts us at $66.1 mil (without Gerald Green) and that's not counting our lottery pick this year. Let's estimate we get the third pick, which would be another $3.7 mil, so our total is just under $70 mil. That's over the lux -- in round figures lets guess it'll be $68 mil.
Unless there's some miraculous buy-out, or we're able to trade Walker, Jaric, or Buckner in a deal that brings back expirings or some other cap relief, you can only start creating cap space by removing contracts, including estimates of extensions:
Don't re-sign Gomes: Save $5 mil
Don't re-sign Telfaire: Save $3.5 mil
Don't re-sign Craig Smith: Save $3 mil
Don't re-sign Chris Richard: Save $0
We need to cut at least $2 (probably $3 if we want to sign our high second rounder .. $4 if Chris Richard shows anything) just to get under the lux. Our only hope at the free agents you mention are sign-and-trades, and since we'll be at the lux, their salaries will be doubled.
I don't mind browsing free agents, but I don't think the Wolves are a player until 2009.
I just saw your additional
I just saw your additional post in the comments.
I'll just say I favor wd's projections for next year.
Duly noted. I should have
Duly noted. I should have made it clearer in the original post. I'm just going through options at this point. I think they hold out for the post 09/10 free agent class. A future post will make this point. I don't think Walker, Buckner, and Jaric will be here next year. Walker is already making noise and Jaric is playing for, at the very least, a trade. I think they do clear this money and that Green and Telfair are as good as gone. That's where I got the 9 million number. I think they could clear more (possibly up to 14 mil) but that would take a lot of things to happen.
I'll have another post with a bit wider range of free agent possibilities coming up as well.