Game of the Year

Finally, after 2 games and 2 quarters of awful, uninspired, and unprofessional basketball, the Wolves put something together to temporarily make the anger subside and the apathy disappear. For 3 quarters last night, the Wolves played America’s Beautiful Game.

Let’s get the bad out of the way. The Wolves came out of the gate and tanked it. Greg Buckner and Ryan Gomes played some of the worst ball seen in this awful season and they were both promptly sent to the bench, never to return. Gomes, in 8:26 of play, racked up a –14. He also airballed an open 3, missed defensive rotations, cowered in front of Marvin Williams, and all-around stunk it up during his limited time on the court. Some of this may have had something to do with Jerry Sichting’s decision to start a front court of Corey Brewer, Gomes, and Al Jefferson against Josh Smith, Williams, and Al Horford; but most of it probably had something to do with Gomes being terrible. Not until Rashad McCants entered the game for poor Ryan did things start to turn around for our poor Puppies. Things got so iffy during the 1st, that Atlanta’s play-by-play guy (thanks NBA package) said the Wolves “[are] not competing and that is the distressing thing.” When he said that, I was beginning to look into the possibility that the Wolves are the most talentless team in the league since the 2004-05 Atlanta Hawk club that won 13 games…maybe since the Dallas Mavs team that won 11 games after they drafted Jim Jackson and he refused to play for them until late in the season. Anywho…

Speaking of Al Horford, he was the Hawks' most valuable player last night. Despite a bench full of athletic forwards, Atlanta’s Big Al is the Hawks’ only legitimate rebounding threat. By staying at home in the paint, Horford allows Josh Smith to take big swipes at opponents’ shots, Marvin Williams to duck in and out of the lane, and Joe Johnson to do whatever it is that Joe Johnson does (more on that later). Atlanta’s worst stretches on the floor were when their anchor went to the bench and they absolutely couldn’t compete with the Wolves on the glass.

As a quick aside, after watching Horford and Brewer on the same court together (and after catching a few Bulls games on WGN), which group of players has more NBA potential: the Wolves current roster or last year’s Florida team? In all honesty, I’d rather have the Florida kids at this point. Yes, they run a motion offense and the NBA is a set play league, but I don’t think they’re that far off talent-wise from our beloved Puppies.

Since we’re on the topic, our main Florida Gator had his best night as a pro against Atlanta. Again, let’s get the bad stuff out of the way first: his shooting is atrocious and it allows his defender to sag down to the post to double team Big Al and Craig Smith. Even more troubling is that our points don’t even do a double take when a wide-open Brewer stands alone at the 3-point line. He simply isn’t an option at this point in time.

Thankfully, Brewer makes up for his shooting by doing the ever-clichéd “little things”. Last night, while his defender ignored his shot, Brewer seized on this indifference by crashing the boards and creating havoc in the lane. He ended the night with 18 rebounds and 5 assists; nearly all of which were helped along by his defender’s refusal to take his shot seriously. Minnesota’s coaching staff took advantage of this situation by running the same damn 1/2 court set all night long: Brewer or the 2 guard would set a high pick, Jaric or Telfair would dribble around it, Smith or Jefferson would quickly break to the block, and Jaric/Telfair would either dish to the post or drive to the rim. Either way, Brewer rotated off the pick (or flew in from the wing) and attacked the rim with little or no resistance. It was simple, effective, and the Hawks had no answer for it all night long.

Despite shooting 3-15 from the floor, Brewer had a great night. He didn’t turn the ball over, he had 5 assists, 4 steals, 18 rebounds and a +9 on the night. He was everywhere and energetic. Brewer has quickly become my favorite Wolf and he, along with Toine, are the only players on the team who actually seem to know how to play basketball. I’m going to call the Atlanta game The Game that Gomes Died, as there should be no further debate that Brewer belongs in the starting lineup…no matter how much abuse he takes at the hands of the Caron Butlers of the world.

Misc

  • Craig Smith needs to start. The big fella gets to the line, gets to the offensive glass, shoots a ridiculously high percentage from the floor, and doesn’t turn it over a whole lot. Along with Brewer, he was the Wolves’ best player last night. Sub Smith for Gomes and Jaric for Buckner in last night’s starting lineup and you may be on to something…or at least as something as the Wolves can get.
  • Supermodel or not, Marko is having a great year. He’s getting into the paint, rebounding, dishing, stealing…he’s doing it all and I think the Wolves would be well served keeping him around during the entire rebuilding process.
  • Michael Doleac saw his 1st stretch of extended play last night and he (relatively) delivered. Unlike Mad Dog, when Doleac flashes to the low block, he is a danger to hit a shot. He also allows Big Al to play the PF.
  • Something is not right with Big Al. He hasn’t shot over 50% from the floor since the Nov 28th Dallas game. His rebounds are down and he’s not getting off the floor as much as he did just a week or two ago.
  • Even though he hit the game winning shot, Joe Johnson is one of the league’s most overrated and overpaid players. Johnson has a barely-serviceable Player Efficiency Rating of 15.98 and his four factor stats are below players like Marko Jaric, Hedo Turkoglu, and Francisco Garcia. Before his fade-away jumper to win the game, Johnson was 7-20 from the floor with 4 turnovers and 0 fouls (i.e. he’s non-existent on D and he doesn’t like contact). Johnson, who will make $14 million a season for the next 2 years, is a more advanced McCants; a player who gets his by having the team’s offense come grinding to a halt. The Hawks will never be a winning squad with this joker on their team and they would be well served to trade him away. Unfortunately for the Hawks, this is unlikely because of his contract.
  • Josh Smith is a beast and he’s one good coach and a point guard away from being an absolute force in this league. Smith needs to focus on short to mid-range jumpers as well as attacking the offensive glass. He’s far too gifted of an athlete to just get 1 offensive rebound a game. Last night Smith went for 28 points on 11-19 shooting. He went to the line 7 times and had 7 blocked shots. Blocked shots are one of the most overrated statistics in all of basketball. Smith would be much better served to attack the glass rather than go for the poster swat. His frame, leaping ability, and Joe Johnson's ability to rattle the rim with his jumpers should make him a top-10 rebounder; especially on the offensive end.

Until next time...


I have to argue that steals

I have to argue that steals are the most overrated statistic. Many steals are generated by gambling on defense, if you don't get it you get crossed over and the opposing player has a lane to the bucket. Good defensive teams don't get a ton of steals, but usually do get blocks. A block takes a shot that has around a %45 chance of going in, and gives it a %0 chance. How is that not important?

The Rhino definitely needs to start, I heart Craig!

Blocked shots are overrated

Blocked shots are overrated because they essentially work out to be a rebound on a missed shot. I don't have Smith's blocked shot stats in front of me, but a good deal of the blocks I have seen him make against the Wolves this year have been the variety of either swatting it out of bounds or to a perimeter Wolves player. In essence, this works out to be an offensive rebound for the Wolves--they took a shot, missed, and they get the ball back on the same possession. In the grand scheme of shots per 100 possessions, blocked shots are not a guarantee of a change in possession, and if they are, they don't affect shooting percentage enough to really throw off any 100-possession number.

Also, blocked shots are often athletic plays; plays made not because of a set or a system, but rather because a player can jump out of the gym. In this case, the blocked shot causes a brief moment of chaos while the ball is up for grabs. We saw this last night right before Smith's turnaround jumper off the glass on Telfair. Defensive chaos is good, but scrums are bad. Blocked shots are hard to control and they often lead to players being out of position in the aftermath.

Shot blockers also have a nasty habit of selling out on their defensive rotations. Take Ratliff for instance. He blocks a lot of shots, but he does so at the expense of rotating to Jefferson's man and going for the help-block. Again, this puts the team out of position on the defensive end.

Josh Smith should be getting over 10 rebounds a game with his size and athletic ability. He's unable to do so because he frequently finds himself out of position after going for the big block. (This also hurts his d as he has a natural tendency to trail his man and go for the swipe from behind.)

I guess I should have qualified my statement more; blocks aren't bad if you can accomplish them in a team setting without getting out of position. Also, if you have a big guy in the lane to erase some perimeter mistakes...it's a nice thing to have. However, it can have a big drawback if they don't result in a change of possession.