Thanks to the omnipresence of the NBA scheduling gods, the newly retooled Miami Heat were on national TV this past weekend. It’s not often the worst team in the league gets the featured slot on Sunday afternoon, but hey…it’s the NBA.
After getting my first good look at the South Florida Timberwolves, I’m pretty optimistic that the recent Shaq-fu mega deal will work out gang-busters for our Beloved Puppies.
With Shawn Marion on the squad, the Heat are on the hook for roughly $50.6 million spread out over 6 active contracts in 2008-09. Adding in their 1st round pick (aprox $3 mil) and Dorell Wright ($2.5 mil), they’re already over $56 mil with only 8 active contracts. While it would be mildly entertaining to see an NBA squad try to make it through the season on the cheap, we here at Canis Hoopus don’t think the Heat will give it a go. The Heat are simply not in a position to max out a player like Elton Brand or Emeka Okafor this off-season. We’re talking $15 million + for both of these players. The Heat may have some room but they don’t have that kind of coin; especially considering that they would still need to sign 3 additional players above the luxury mark.
In their ever-continuing effort to remain 1 year behind the Wolves, the Heat are entering a rebuilding year with a cornerstone player (Dwayne Wade), big contract (Marion), a high draft pick, and a bunch of nothing. They’re not so far under the cap that they can go out and get a big name player and they’re hard up enough for bodies that they can’t afford to waste mid-level and rookie exceptions.
The Heat are in a tremendous pickle. I may be one of the few people who didn’t think that they made out like bandits with the Shaq trade. Shawn Marion is an exceptionally well-compensated player and the Heat took on a horribly bad Marcus Banks contract…which they can add to the Mark Blount deal. They need a point, a center, and bodies to come off the bench. Right now, they’re looking at the following lineup next year:
- Marcus Banks/(empty)
- Dwayne Wade/Daequan Cook
- Shawn Marion/(empty)
- Udonis Haslem/(empty)
- Mark Blount/(empty)
Bench: (empty).
That’s it folks. That’s all they have locked up. Marion gave them a more functional player than Shaq but he only took $3 mil off the books. Let’s say that the Heat select a point (Derrick Rose would be a good fit for them); they still have to fill out the roster with no 2nd round pick (which they owe to the Wolves) and little money to operate before they hit the cap.
With all of this in mind, while the Heat should be improved next year, I can’t say that they will be much improved. They have just as many holes as the Wolves, a thin roster with $56 million in salary, only 1 draft pick in 08, and Pat Riley calling the shots. Performance-wise, and at this point in his career, Marion may not be as far beyond Shaq as it may seem at first glance; while his win/loss shares blow Shaq’s out of the water, he’s only averaging 15/2/10. He also won’t have Steve Nash dishing him the ball (or Amare drawing double teams). It will be interesting to see how much the Heat improve over the last 35 games of the year. If they don’t play .350-.450 ball, it doesn’t speak well of their chances in 2008-09.
All of this being written, the Wolves should have an excellent shot at getting the Heat’s #1 2009 pick in a pretty fair position as the Heat still play in the woeful Eastern Conference and they should find a way to make it above the 10 worst teams in the league in the 2008/09 season. Wade should be healthy, Marion will be in a contract year, and they will likely have a top-5 pick. That should be worth at least 30 wins, right? Stop-n-Pop prediction: The Heat will finish at 33-49, 11th in the NBA—giving the Wolves the 11th pick in the draft.
