As I wrote two weeks ago, the Timberwolves have pressing financial matters to attend to in the near future, not the least of which is Garnett trade centerpiece Al Jefferson.

Jefferson is the one element of the trade that everyone agrees is worth getting excited about. Next season is the last guaranteed year on Big Al’s contract. As things stand, he’s a restricted free agent after this season. On July 1, 2008 teams around the league will be able to sign Jefferson to an offer sheet, which the Timberwolves would then have the opportunity to match within seven days. If teams are below the cap, they can use however much cap space they like to make an offer to restricted free agent Al. Most teams, however, will have no more than the roughly $5.5 million mid-level exception.

The Timberwolves have essentially two options: sign Al to a contract extension before October 31st of this year or wait until next offseason and see what the market dictates. No one seems likely to have enough cap space to make a run at Al, but let’s take a look at the teams that might get a shot:

• Atlanta is known for having frugal (not to mention volatile) ownership. They’re currently on the books for about $48 million. If we assume a $58 million salary cap next year, that puts them in the range for Al with $10 million in space. The Hawks, however, have two restricted free agents of their own (Josh Smith and Josh Childress) that together will almost definitely eat up that $10 million.
• Charlotte is in a similar boat with $49 million committed for next year. They too have a big time restricted free agent in Emeka Okafor who will easily fill in that $9 million hole.
• Billy King and the Philadelphia 76ers have even less than the Hawks or Bobcats next year ($41 million) since they’ll finally rid themselves of three contracts belonging to people not on the roster (Chris Webber, $19 million; Aaron McKie, $7 million; Greg Buckner, $2 million). That puts them about $17 million under the cap next offseason. But, a team has to think about their own young stars first. If Andre Iguodala improves again this season (his time with Team USA will be very valuable) he’ll get at least half of that space. A low post force like Al is much needed in Philly, but would $9 million be something that Minnesota wouldn’t match? Not likely.

While some other teams’ payrolls for 2008 are currently under this year’s cap (and therefore likely to be under next year’s cap figure) none are in the high seven-digits like the three above. So, at first glance the Timberwolves’ most prudent financial move may be to wait for the market to set Al’s price and either pay it or let him walk.

Letting him walk, however, might cause a riot in the state of Minnesota.

And if the Timberwolves wait to lock up Al, how would that affect him? The word “extension” has been floated in the media since a few days after the trade. If the Wolves don’t show him some love before the season, there is one more scenario to consider. Al could play out this season and wait for the Timberwolves to extend him a qualifying offer (required to formalize restricted free agency). If Al refuses to sign an offer sheet or accept an offer from the Wolves, he could just sit on the qualifying offer, play out the 2008 season and become an unrestricted free agent thereafter. It’s not a likely series of events, but if Al is offended by not getting an extension and doesn’t receive a sizable offer sheet, this scenario is in the realm of possibility.

In Part 2 I’ll explore the question of how much Al may get paid next season, whether it be via extension or free agency.