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In case you couldn't tell, contracts and finance are two of my favorite topics in the NBA. Now that the offseason is over, the dead weight has been shed, and the Wolves' roster is down to 15, I thought it would be valuable to run down the details of the payroll.
This is where the Timberwolves stand immediately, except for Juwan Howard's buyout which I don't precisely know yet. Red font indicates team options, blue font indicates player options, green font indicates a qualifying offer and gray font indicates a partial guarantee. For a detailed description of what all these mean, see Larry Coon's definitive FAQ.
Now, I think it's safe to say that Antoine Walker will not have his third and fourth years guaranteed, nor will Greg Bucker. Below is an estimate using those two points as well as an estimate of Howard's buyout using the minimum salary figures for a player with his experience.
This picture, then, represents the "lowest" cap figures moving forward. There are other possible moves, like not extending a qualifying offer to Telfair or not exercising McCants' or Green's team options, but IMO those moves don't make sense.
Regardless, looking at those figures you see the much bandied-about 2009 cap figure: $24,221,358. Free agency here we come! Not so fast KFAN listeners. With Big Al, Gomes and Smith all up for contracts next season (or extensions now) and then McCants and Green up for free agency in 2009, that $24 million cap figure could easily become $50 million.
Let's take a look at what that might look like. If Al Jefferson gets a $65 million extension over 5 years (which I think would be a good deal) and the Wolves structure the contract as flat (which I think would be a good idea), that's $13 million per. Now, just hypothetically, let's say Gomes gets a Walton-esque deal for 5 years and $25 million and Craiggers gets a Blatch-esque 5 years for $15 million.
As you can see, with 3 quick signings (at rates that I think the Wolves would be happy to get) the 2009 cap space quickly dwindles. If the cap grows at 4% over the next two years, it should be about $60 million in 2009. Yes, that estimate leaves $15 million in cap space. However, McCants and Green are up for contracts that year, with Randy Foye the year after. The Wolves have the potential to be players on the market in the near future, if they want to do it they'll have some difficult "No"s to hand out to some producitve players.
Great stuff, it's really
Great stuff, it's really interesting to see just what kind of cap flexibility we're going to have in the future. You mentioned we're going to have to make some tough decisions in the future; is anyone else distressed because Kevin McHale will be the one making them?
I am indeed worried that
I am indeed worried that McHale is the one calling the shots. However, I think he did a pretty good job cleaning up the roster and payroll this offseason. The big decisions coming up only involve our own players, which I think makes them easier to not screw up. However, that's only if McHale has learned his lesson from Troy Hudson, Mike James and Marko Jaric (the same one Mullin learned from Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, Adonal Foyle, Jason Richardson and Derek Fisher).
You say that there might be
You say that there might be some tough "nos" to be handed out, yet there is no garuntee that McCants and Green will show the organization that they are worth a damn. McCants has a long ways to go before we should consider paying him any amount of significant money. This is a guy, who I wouldn't say relied on his athleticism, but it certainly a big part of what made him a special college player. What i will give him is that he seems to be a bright kid and you can see a difference in how smart he palys the game, especially on the defensive end. Speaking of "smarts" and "relying on athleticism" I'll be honest about Gerald Green. He was an exciting part of the trade in my eyes when it first went down. His frame is dripping with potential and he has shown at the very least a decent shooting touch, if not above average. Which is why it is so mind boggling that this kid could be SO bad at playing the game of basketball. Just watching him in meaningless preseason games makes me think that he is going out of his way to make sure he stays bolted to the bench and never reaches his physical potential with some of the decisions he makes out on the court. Britt Robson had plus/minus #s up over at the rake and I am not in the least bit suprised that Green was on the wrong end of the spectrum there. Long story short is that the "no" to Green may end up being easier than one would think.
Also, I'd just like to say that I am officially prognosticato numero uno as far as Foye's knee is concerned. The coaching staff seems to be wetting their pants a bit and are clearly concerned. This is a HUGE setback for not only Foye, but realy more so the Wolves organization, as they realy may not see what Foye can realy do until next year when he is healthy, making a contract decision even riskier/tougher, unless McHale decides to pull another T-Hud (gotta love paying injured players when they havent shown they are back to what they were pre injury) You heard it here first. Foye will miss no less than 20 games this year because of this knee issue, and i'd say the odds are better than 50/50 he'll need it scoped by years end, or will have it scoped in the coming offseason.
I think you're right that it
I think you're right that it may come down to us choosing between signing our own young guys or going for a FA. It may not come down to that if Jaric were to be moved for a contract that expired by the summer of 09. That is going to be a tall task though.
The hard decisions are
The hard decisions are already coming. I appreciate that Glen Taylor has been willing to pay to clear up a lot of our salary cap issues, and clear a little room for new blood. He bought out Hudson, we traded Blount and Hassell for deals that were a year shorter, and moved Ricky to create minutes to develop the youth. However, I wish he had gone further.
I can understand Jaric is nearly impossible to move, but I wish he had bought out Walker, and maybe Greg Buckner, to clear more minutes, and roster spaces for Simien and Green. I don't agree with the decision not to extend Green, but I can see Taylor telling McHale "Clean up the mess, but make no moves that put us over the lux." We are right at the lux in 2008-09, so I can see Green's $2.5 mil being doubled for being over the lux, and MIN would lose its $2 mil slice of the luxury tax pot. Is Green's potential worth $2.5 mil? Certainly. Is he worth $7 mil? No. However, I'd still extend him, because his physical skills are so great that some team would offer something for him, and we could make a move in the next twenty months to get back under the lux. Green's worth nearly nothing now, since he becomes a free agent after this season.
The hard choices for 2008-09 have already started, but they could have been delayed a bit. Factor in we're going to have to toss another $2.5 mil (probably more) for next year's lottery pick, and our second rounder will be high next year too, and might make the squad. Cap space and roster spots will be at a premium. McHale was quite successful in his only other rebuild, and he started with a lot less than this. His recent draft choices have been good ones, particularly Craig Smith, and I think his trades have been OK too. I think he will be able to make the hard choices to turn the franchise around in 2009.
Good comment Shrink,
Good comment Shrink, thanks.
Your point about Green and the luxury tax is well taken.