With each team in the NBA having no more than three games remaining and the tanking talk hotter than ever, I thought it might be valuable to lay out the potential scenarios presented to the ping-pong ball chasers. For an explanation of how the lottery works see here. As of Saturday morning, April 12th the standings look thusly:

I show the top six because after running "best" and "worst" scenarios Milwaukee always stayed in 7th (in this post best and worst use the Wolves' lottery odds as a frame of reference). So even if the Clippers win their last three (all on the road, no less) and the Bucks lose their last three, the Bucks will still be 7th in the lottery rankings.

As I write this, I'm watching the Sonics/Nuggets game on NBA TV. Watching Kevin Durant force two overtimes with 3-pointers has been amazing. Jeff Green's having a monster game too. If only he would've been available at #7 last year. *sigh*

Back to the matter at hand. It seems that Zgoda and Reusse over at the Strib have been talking draft all weekend. While I understand storylines are running low for the Wolves and likely top-2 pick Derrick Rose has been impressive this March, I think focusing on the draft right now gets us ahead of ourselves quickly.

First of all, I would like to direct readers to a correction made in response to one of our readers. I had made a rather significant error in my post about Theo Ratliff and a Fantasy GM deal with Memphis. I have made an update in the post and I encourage all of you to read it here. One of the great things about blogs is that our readers are our 2nd line of editing. If you ever see any errors on Canis Hoopus, please point them out to us and they will be corrected/amended. Thanks again to the alert reader for pointing out this error.

For a few months now I have been running a feature here at Canis Hoopus about the upcoming draft. You can read the latest installment here. For those of you who don’t enjoy clicking through links, here’s the list from the last post (college players only):

1. Michael Beasley
2. Donte Green
3. Ty Lawson
4. Derrick Rose
5. Roy Hibbert
6. Deandre Jordan
7. DJ Augustin
8. Chris Douglas-Roberts
9. Brook Lopez
10. Devon Hardin
11. OJ Mayo

Before I take a bit different approach to this feature, here’s the updated list:

1. Michael Beasley
2. Roy Hibbert
3. Donte Greene
4. Derrick Rose
5. Ty Lawson
6. Brook Lopez
7. Chris Douglas-Roberts
8. DJ Augustin
9. Hasheem Thabeet
10. Devon Hardin

A few notes:

Roy Hibbert is really growing on me. He is a 4-year starter who has shown consistent improvement over the course of his career, he operates as a point-center in Georgetown’s offense so he is comfortable with the ball as well as being the best-passing big man in college ball, and he has legit-size and skills on both sides of the court. Deandre Jordan has been replaced by Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet is a project center every bit as much as Jordan is, but his defensive game is more advanced and he is starting to show signs of being able to change games on that end of the court. It should be noted that he does so in the middle of a 2-3 zone, but he seems to have the physical skills to transfer this ability to the next level. I’m slowly softening my do-not-draft-Derrick-Rose stance. He’s a hell of a player and if Beasley, Hibbert, and Donte Greene are off the board, I think the Wolves should jump at him.

One thing I would like to add to the draft board series (to be updated once a month) is a draft strategy proposal. The Wolves have a lot of small-change assets that they can use to great effect in this year’s draft. Having a lot of picks sounds nice in theory, but once you start attaching names like Louis Williams and Bracey Wright to 2nd round picks, some of the luster begins to fade from thinking the team has so many options to work with.

I am of the opinion that the Wolves need to identify 2-3 1st rounders in this year’s draft and then move every and anything they can from their cache of small-change assets to get these guys in a Wolves’ uniform. What “small-change” assets do they have to work with?

• 2 top 2nd round picks in the 2008 draft (likely picks 31 and 32)
• Miami Heat 1st round pick from the Toine deal
• $5 million trade exception from the Toine deal (Mark Blount)
• Boston Celtic 1st round pick from the KG deal
• Antoine Walker’s expiring contract
• Randy Foye or Rashad McCants

I know, I know…Shaddy and Foye aren’t small change. However, they are basically the same player and they could provide value for the team to move up and get a player they want/need that does something…well, different than what a 6’4” undersized shooting/3rd guard can bring to the squad. What should the Wolves do?

1. Target a scoring forward with the top pick: as I have made clear on several previous occasions (the latest being here), the Wolves need a scorer who can get to the line and either make perimeter shots or break down their defender and get to the rim. Preferably, this player has size and is able to play the 3: a position the team gets absolutely torched at. Michael Beasley is the obvious choice here, followed by Donte Greene and Italian import Danilo Gallinari. Since I obviously don’t follow Euroleague competition, I’ll have to hope that the Wolves have a tip-top international scouting operation to choose between Greene and Gallinari. One option with the top pick (should Beasley be off the board) is to draft Gallinari and tell him to stay in Europe for another year in hopes that he continues to develop against top European competition and that the Wolves can hold on to their top-10 pick which is owed to the LA Clippers. Whatever the case, final result: Beasley, Greene, or Gallinari.
2. Move up to draft a center: There are 3 centers that the Wolves should consider in this draft (in order): Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, and Hasheem Thabeet. In order to get Hibbert or Lopez, the team will likely have to move into the top-10. Possible targets: trade Shaddy or Foye (likely Shaddy) and the Heat and Celtic picks to the Charlotte Bobcats for their top-10 pick. Currently, the Bobcats are slated to draft 6th. Trade Antoine Walker and Heat pick + 1 2nd rounder to the Bucks for Bobby Simmons and top pick. The Bucks are currently slated to draft 8th. Final result: Hibbert or Lopez.
3. Target tall shooting guard with perimeter skills: we’re talking about Chase Budinger and Chris Douglas-Roberts here. Most mock drafts have these guys going in the 10-15 range. Possible targets: trade Corey Brewer to the Suns for the Atlanta pick (currently 11th). Trade 2 2nd rounders and the trade exception to the Suns for the Atlanta pick and Raja Bell. Trade the trade exception and 1 2nd rounder plus Heat/Celtic pick to the Kings for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and their 1st round pick (currently 12th). Final result: Budinger or CDR. (BTW: you know Phoenix would jump at the Brewer for Atlanta pick deal.)

Ultimately, the Wolves have to realize that a lot of small-change assets are only valuable when packaged together for specific players that fill needs for the squad. What is worth more: Chris Douglas-Roberts or Jason Thompson and Omer Asik (2 players listed as the Wolves’ top 2nd round picks at Draft Express)? Because of this, Fred Hoiberg’s recent comments should give you some pause:

"We're going to get a good pick," said Hoiberg, who recently returned from a long scouting trip in Europe. "If the ping-pong balls fell where the records are, we'd have the second pick of the draft behind Miami, and then we've also got Miami's second-round pick [from a trade].

"So, right now we would have No. 2, No. 31 and No. 32. So, we're going to get good players at those positions."

Here is a list of players taken at 31 and 32 in recent drafts:

• 2007: Carl Landry and Gabe Pruitt
• 2006: James White and Steve Novak
• 2005: Salim Stoudamire and Daniel Ewing
• 2004: Anderson Varejao and Jackson Vroman
• 2003: Maciej Lampe and Jason Kapono
• 2002: Steve Logan and Roger Mason Jr.
• 2001: Trenton Hassell and Gilbert Arenas
• 2000: Marko Jaric and Dan Lahghi

As if the Hassel and Jaric bifecta wasn’t enough, the ratio of Agent Zeros to Dan Lahghis should be enough to dissuade anyone from thinking the Wolves could a) find themselves in a position where a Gilbert-esque player exists in the 2nd round and b) be smart enough to select said player. Of course, for Grandpa Sid, an untested assistant GM + 2 2nd rounders = a brighter future. Just for additional kicks, here’s the list of Wolves 2nd rounders during that same period of time:

• 2007: Chris Richard
• 2006: Craig Smith, Bobby Jones, and Loukas Mavrokefalidis
• 2005: Bracey Wright
• 2004: Blake Stepp
• 2003: Rick Rickert
• 2002: Marcus Taylor
• 2001: Loren Woods
• 2000: Igor Rakocevic

Just for fun, let’s add the 1999 Draft’s 2nd rounder, Louis Bullock. It never hurts to mention again and again that outside of the Joe Smith fiasco and the Randy Foye pick, nothing set the Wolves back quite as much as their performance in the 1999 Draft, which just happened to be one of the best drafts in the past 20 years. Instead of Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, and Corey Maggette, the Wolves took Wally Szczerbiak. Instead of Ron Artest, James Posey, Devean George, or Andrei Kirikenko, they took Will Avery. Ah yes, a bright future provided by those who have supplied the darkness.

Anywho…

If the Wolves can leave this draft with a scoring 3, a toolsy 5, and a perimeter-proficient 2, what more could they ask for in the future with the Heat pick, the Celtic pick, the 2 2nd rounders, 2 6’4” guards, a trade exception, and Toine’s expiring contract? Again, for kicks and giggles, here’s how the draft could play out with the targeted approach:

1. Bassy/Jaric
2. (CDR/Budinger)/(Shaddy/Foye)/(Brewer)
3. Gomes/(Beasley/Greene/Gallinari)/(Brewer)
4. Big Al/Rhino
5. (Hibbert/Lopez)/Big Al

Best case scenario:

1. Bassy/Jaric
2. Budinger/Shaddy/Brewer
3. Beasley/Gomes/Brewer
4. Big Al/Rhino
5. Hibbert/Big Al

The point here is that the fact the Wolves have a lot of small chips is meaningless if they just let them play out. They need to target players in this year’s draft and move on them with whatever available resources they have. Get the young core in place, don’t worry about future extra picks, and move, move, move on players that fit the bill in this year’s draft: a scoring 3, a 5, and a big 2 guard.

Until later.

PS: Keep your eye on whether or not Nick Calathes enters the draft. He should stay in college another year or two but he’s a Stop-n-Pop dark horse; one of the smartest b-ball players I have ever seen at the freshman level who would make an excellent compliment to Bassy at the point.

3-20 is a bad way to go, but for sake of sheer horror, this year's worst possible outcome is that our beloved Puppies will pull a Memphis and end up with the league’s worst record and the 4th pick in the 2008 Draft. Taking into consideration the front office acumen at 600 First Avenue, a 10-15 win season could easily turn into a polished gem should the wrong player be selected with the lowest possible first round pick. Since the mood has been set with low bars and 4th quarter collapses, I proudly present to you the top 5 players of terror--the cold sweat nightmares that will keep you up at night with the haunting words of “And with the 4th pick of the 2008 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select…”

1. Kevin Love, “C”, UCLA- Mr. Love is a highly regarded freshman with a purported knack for pristine outlet passes. He’s also a questionable 6’9” with modest athleticism and little to no promise of guarding legitimate Association 5’s on a greater level than Big Al. On the plus side, Love is a hoops junkie (he watches tapes of Wes Unseld) who is supposedly a coaches’ dream (he proactively sought out the advice of John Wooden) with a high b-ball IQ. Can you think of a player that could possibly appeal more to Kevin McHale than Mr. Love? That fact alone should scare the bejeezus out of you…to say nothing of a 6’9” pseudo-Dukie who is best known for his outlet passing. Just what the Wolves need, right? Fear the Love.
2. Kosta Koufos- C, Ohio State: 19 and 7 looks good against Columbia University, but 4 and 3 looks even worse against Tyler Hansbrough and the UNC Tarheels. Koufos further bombed against Texas A&M by posting 10 and 5 (on 4-16 shooting) against pro-prospect (and legit NBA physical talent) Deandre Jordan. Koufos has also dropped 4 straight games with zero assists. Can you imagine a frontline of Al Jefferson, Craig Smith, and Koufos? Should such a combination be forced upon the Association, gravity may cease to exist once Telfair enters the ball into the paint. Koufos is a 7-foot Kris Humphries; a one-and-done player out to get his by shooting as much as he possibly can at the expense of his team and teammates. I thought this kid would be someone to keep an eye on but he is a late 1st rounder at best.
3. Chase Budinger- SF, Arizona: And with the 4th pick of the 2008 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select…the ghost of Sam Jacobsen!!! Let’s see…a white 6’7” wingman with a nice vertical who can hit the college three and is overshadowed by a Bobby Jackson-esque player (Jerryd Bayless). To give Mr. Budinger some credit, he is having an OK season at Arizona: averaging 17ppg with nearly 4 assists. That being said, the Wolves need a swingman with a 36% 3P% like they need a collective hole in the head.
4. Roy Hibbert- C, Georgetown: Mr. Hibbert makes the list because he is the safest pick and his selection would mean that some big names have decided to stay another year in college. As I have mentioned here several times, Roy Hibbert would be an excellent choice with the 15th pick in the draft. He is a legit 7 footer who has improved with each and every year in school. The reason why he is on this list is that he will become Christian Laettner, pt. ii. Yeah, he’s nice, but after Shaq and Zo come off the board, Mr. Congeniality isn’t the prize you want to come home with.
5. Eric Gordon- G, Indiana: Sweet baby Jesus he’s good. Built like a bowling ball and equipped with an NBA ready game and attitude, Gordon is a legit offensive threat from all over the court. He shoots 54% from the floor (50% from behind the college line), handles the ball well, passes with efficiency, and can even hit the boards. That being said, if the Wolves pick Gordon, they will have officially become the NBA’s version of the Detroit Lions: picking the same position with each and every first round pick they get their grubby little hands on. Unfortunately for us fans, Eric Gordon is to the Wolves what Calvin Johnson is to the Motor City Kities: a player of such immense talent that the Wolves will talk themselves into selecting another 6 nothing combo guard with Randy Foye and Rashad McCants already on the roster.

Honorable Mention: John Riek. Go ahead…Google him. There, you now know as much about the man as does Kevin McHale...and that is exactly what should scare you should his name be called out with the 4th pick.

Long Shot Award: The aforementioned Tyler Hansbrough. Every now and then I think to myself that the Wolves are in the position they’re in because of a number of factors that transcended the front office to such an extent that perhaps Kevin McHale really knows what he is doing and all along he and KG were trying their best to patch a lineup together with the intention of making it all work on a year-to-year basis. Now that KG is gone, McHale can set about doing what needs to be done: setting up a young franchise with a solid core of cornerstones and priced to move role players. It is in these moments that I view a pick for Tyler Hansborough as being an absolute impossibility. Surely the Wolves front office can’t be that insane. Yet, there he is: all 6’9” and 245 pounds of him. A 3-year Kevin Love who plays with passion and grit. Have you seen the way he works the low block? Have you seen how he can get to the line? Have you seen how he works against bigger and more athletically gifted post players? I like to think that the world is a good and decent place and that problems of theodicy can be overcome and explained away by the inherent goodness of man and the promise of reason. This entire world view would come crashing down should Mr. Hansbrough trade in the baby blue for the blue and green with the 4th pick. The world doesn’t need another out-of-position Tar Heel on the Timberpuppies’ roster. It would simply be too much to handle.

It’s been a busy couple of days here at the Stop-n-Pop household in beautiful Mankato, Minnesota. I only caught a few minutes of the last two games at DC and Philly so I won’t bore you with my take on the stat sheets. If you want the best break downs of the games, head on over to On the Ball with Britt Robson. (Hint: the losses had a little bit to do with missed free-throws and bad rebounding.)

I would like to take a few paragraphs to talk about two things: the cheap ass NBA and college prospects.

As many of you no-doubt know, Atlanta forward Al Horford sent TJ Ford to the hospital earlier this week with a hard (but hardly out of line) foul across Ford’s head. The NBA has just handed down a 1-game suspension on Horford. Why is this a load of bullshiite? First of all, Horford made a clear play on the ball. If the 245 pound Horford had simply whacked away at the 165 pound Ford with no regard for the ball, the league might have a point. Second, Horford is not responsible for Ford’s past spinal cord issues (incurred against the Wolves.) I can’t imagine that Ford’s medical history didn’t play a part in the way most people reacted to the fall. Third, and most importantly, Shaq is still running around on the court after his felony assault on Joel Pryzbilla. In case you missed it, Shaq knocked Pryzbilla over and then rammed the basketball (with his full weight) into Pryz’s head, knocking him out cold. If you would perform this move on someone on the street, you would be in jail. Yet, in the NBA with Shaq…not so much. Look, I’m rooting for the Heat to make the playoffs as much as the next Wolves fan, but this is ridiculous. Shaq should be suspended for multiple games.

OK, back to the Puppies.

It is becoming more and more obvious that the Wolves really, really, really need a true center to help out Big Al. What big men will likely be available in next year’s draft? Let’s take a look at the top 3:

1. Roy Hibbert- Georgetown, Senior. There has been some back and forth on Canis Hoopus concerning Mr. Hibbert. Some of us think that he is a latter-day Loren Woods. Others, that he is a legit 5 with soft hands, durability, and a proven record of improvement. I myself kind of teeter back and forth between the two, but I am currently in the latter camp. Mr. Hibbert has improved in nearly each and every statistical category each year at Georgetown. He is a smart player with NBA size and skills. He is a far better player at the college level than was Loren Woods (stats) and his acumen in the paint is much more advanced than the former Wolf. Ideally, Hibbert is a late-lottery pick. He’s a solid Association starter but not a superstar. For more scouting on Hibbert, click here.
2. DeAndre Jordan- Texas A&M, Fr: Sit down boys and girls and let me tell you the tale of a 7 foot Gerald Green. Well, that’s not completely fair. DeAndre hasn’t had the time to remove all hope as has Mr. Green. But take a quick look at Jordan’s stats to gain a quick understanding of the gap between promise and delivery that fuels the young Aggie’s game. You read that correctly…80.4% from the floor and 31.6% from the line. In other words, the young fella can dunk the hell out of the ball and he attacks the rim when he gets in close, but he can't shoot for shiite. If you project his stats to 40-minute levels, he’s averaging 14 boards and 8.3 FTA’s game. He also alters shots and does a wonderful job on the offensive glass. However, for every positive written about the young man (and there are a lot), there is a negative. Take this one for instance: Although he came into the [U-19] tournament with the credentials of a top-recruit, Jordan left a very underwhelming impression. Yes, he's big, he's strong and he's nicely athletic for an inside man. He enjoys a superb frame, a very good wingspan and in general, an excellent physical profile. But his game screams raw at this point. On a team that was thoughtfully built, he was one of the most unnecessary pieces. Primarily a low-post player, he was unable to produce there, looking very uncomfortable against the well-structured international defenses that rarely allow pure one-on-one match-ups in the low post. So whenever he needed to deliver quick and precise moves, his lack of polished footwork got visibly exposed, showing very mechanical execution and poor touch. In the end, many of his points came from dunking open looks near the rim. It's also interesting to note that he looked like a pure finisher, showing little passing skills and creativity. At this point, he seems mostly to be about potential.

   Jordan has physical attributes that lie somewhere inbetween Chris Bosh and Josh Howard. He’s an athletic freak who is likely already able to hold his own defensively in the Association. However, there are questions about his effort and offensive effectiveness. He is a lottery pick in the truest sense of the word.

3. Kosta Koufos- Ohio State, Fr: Kosta is a legit 7 footer with a European game (i.e. mid range jumpers and a nice dribble-shoot move). He doesn’t pass, his d is suspect, and he has been outperformed by more athletic opponents (see his game against Jordan’s Aggies.) However, he has a nice mid-range game and he is surely a one-and-done player as Ohio State will reload with the nation’s top center in 09 (BJ Mullens).

The next 3:

1. Brook Lopez-Stanford, So
2. Kevin Love-UCLA, Fr
3. Hasheem Thabeet-Uconn, So

That’s enough for now. Enjoy tonight’s game vs. the Sonics. It’s at half-time right now and I’d like to take a moment to show an excerpt from an email to wd earlier this year:

Can you believe that lottery? Frickin' Portland. As long as we get Corey Brewer I'll be fine. I think he's the best player in the draft after Oden. I think we should trade KG and try and pick up Mike Conley and/or the kid from China. I'd love to have a team with Foye and Conley at the guards, Brewer, Smith and Yi on the frontline. You'd have the most athletic and quickest starting 5 in the league. You'd be a bit undersized, but...OMG...the speed.

OK, I got a little homerish with the Yi and Conley talk. I was pretty hyped about the possibility of KG getting traded for the Celtics’ number 5 pick and I bunched both of them into the starting 5, but I stand by my belief that Brewer was the 2nd best player in last year’s draft. (I also may have tipped my hand on my true feelings about Big Al.) I’m not a big Durant fan at all and I’m happy to see Brewer having a better 1st half than the trigger-happy former Longhorn.

Finally, I’m working on a post for the 2009 draft and dark horses in 08. I want you all to think about the following 2 names: Nick Calathes and Ricky Rubio. Google and enjoy. Back to the game…