In case you didn't already know, you can scalp GREAT tickets to Timberwolves games these days. Skyner and I got $100 face tickets for $25 a pop; and that's including my negotiation-screwup fee.

The best summary I can give this game is that we looked solid overall, shaky at times, and then blew it in the 4th quarter. And it bear's mentioning that it was against a Northwest Division rival that we should expect to see quite often in the next 5 years.

Two bright spots (especially when scoping the box score were Rashad McCants and Craig Smith off the bench. Both played very productive games. Shaddy had a couple bonehead plays, but 85% of the time he was not the chucking, lax defender I had expected tonight. So, for that, I owe Dying To Be Loved a good deal of credit.

In a follow-up from the last post, here are some more mid-season awards:

• Most Promising thing about the Team Award: This is a tough award to give out. I’ve whittled it down to two things: draft picks and Big Al’s low post game. On one hand the Wolves will likely be selecting fairly high in the next 2 drafts. However, unlike last year where there were 2 dead locks in the top 2 slots, this year’s draft doesn’t have that single wow player to make the quest for the largest amount of ping-pong balls as worthwhile as it would be in other years. Furthermore, as Memphis and Boston proved last year, and to say nothing about the Wolves’ luck in past drafts, having the worst record and/or tanking it is no guarantee of draft success. If anything, this year’s draft is one where the team could be somewhat content picking in the 5-8 range as the top 6 picks will likely be college freshmen. In other words, the Wolves would likely get just as much value out of a player like DJ Augustin or Ty Lawson in the 7 slot as they would out of Derrick Rose with the number 1 pick. It’s easy to forget that Lawson was considered a right-handed version of Mike Conley during his freshman season. Lawson has returned to Chapel Hill to post some impressive numbers, to include a +3 ppr, which is a pretty damn good indicator of success at the next level (Rose has a negative ppr rating). Getting back to the question at hand, while the Wolves do have some nice picks coming their way, it is tough to get too worked up about the team selecting a franchise player in what looks to be a pretty mediocre draft…which brings us to Big Al’s low post game. Low post players typically hit their stride in their mid to late 20s and if what we have seen from the 23 year old Jefferson in his first Wolves campaign is any indication, the big fella has the potential to be a major offensive force for many years to come. From footwork to creating angles to the hoop, Jefferson can simply put the rock in the hole. While his mid range jump shot resembles a push shot a little too much, if he can learn to hit the 10-12 foot jumper, he should find increased success against larger opponents (read: centers) by taking them out of their comfort zone in the lane. Granted, his defense leaves a lot to be desired and he performs much better at the 4 than the 5, but if there is one reason and one reason alone to be excited about this current group of players, it is the dominant offensive game of this very young post player.
• Biggest Disappointment: In a 7 win season this is another category with no shortage of candidates. At first glance, I wanted to tie the winner of this award to on-court performance. After all, as much as the current state of affairs is the result of poor front office decisions, what’s done is done and there is no use in crying over spilt milk, right? Wrong. As crappy as things have been on-court, there is some truth to the assertion that this is a young team with a lot of players who have never played together before. There’s also a lot of truth in the ineffectiveness of a product that has had 2 of its most important starters out of the lineup for nearly the entire season….which brings me back to a front office decision. The single biggest disappointment for the Wolves was when they selected Corey Brewer with the 7th pick in the 2007 Draft. This award has nothing to do with Mr. Brewer the player. He’s a smart player, I like his game, and I think he will grow into a fine pro. What was disappointing about the pick is that by failing to move KG before the draft, the Wolves lost an important opportunity to pick a player that would compliment their future rebuilding plans. As any T-Wolf fan can tell you, one of the things that this team needs more than anything else is a big man to compliment Jefferson in the low post; a big athletic guy who can rebound and defend while doing the ever-cliched little things. You know, someone like Joakim Noah or Sean Williams. I know that the KG trade happened well after draft day but by postponing the deal the Wolves lost a full year of draft rebuilding potential when they selected a wingman…which they then received 2 more of in the KG trade itself. Again, this has nothing to do with Brewer the player. It has everything to do with a front office that seems to be flying by the seat of its pants while telling everyone they have a plan, and that is the biggest disappointment of them all.

Letter Grades:

• Al Jefferson: B. Big Al would warrant an A if his impressive offensive numbers weren’t completely negated by poor defense. While he’s capable of racking up 39 and 15, he’s just as capable of letting his opponent go 14-16 from the floor while racking up a negative +/- number. That being said, Al has never played for a decent squad so it’s hard to gauge just how much of the problem is of his doing. Not even 5 man rotation stats can provide a window into this important question. Stats to watch for: PER: 22.74, Reb-r: 19.1, FT/FG: 20.
• Sebastian Telfair: B-. Coming into the season, the 22 year old point was viewed as a gun-toting left over in the KG trade. After Randy Foye went down with a kneecap injury, Bassy stood up and straight-out won the starting point slot from Marko Jaric. While he’ll never be known as a great shooter (witness his 25% 3pFG%), he is shooting 40% from the floor while drastically improving his shot selection in the last 10 games. Overall he’s giving the team 9.6 points, 6 assists, and only 2 turnovers per game. In the last 5 games it has been especially noticeable that Bassy has forsaken the outside shot (only 6 3ptA) in favor of penetration, passing and mid-range jumpers. In that short stretch, he’s averaged 12 ppg, 7.4 apg, and only turned the ball over 7 times while shooting over 50% from the floor. This is a sign of a player realizing the strengths and weaknesses of his game. If Bassy continues to massively limit his outside shots while keeping the assist/turnover rate where it is, the Wolves can legitimately feel good about going into next season with a competent point on the roster. Stats to watch for: PER: 10.55, PPR: 6.0, TO-r: 10.7, AST-r: 32.0, eFG: 42.3%.
• Ryan Gomes: B-. As much as one can get worked up over his play of late (17 pts, 6.6 reb, and 52% from the floor over the past 10 games), Gomes did not have a good start to the year and there was a period in early December where he was absolutely non-existent. Gomes is a nice player to have on a team; he’s versatile and hard working and he seems to have a very high basketball IQ. Stats to look for: PER: 15.58, Reb-r: 11.1, eFG: 49.5%.
• Rashad McCants: C. I really wanted to give Shaddy a B. He is the Wolves’ only decent perimeter threat and he has a dynamic arsenal at his disposal on the offensive end. However, there are just too many times where the Wolves’ offensive flow comes to a grinding halt when the guy gets the ball in his hands. He has played better defense of late but still needs to cut down on silly hack fouls 60 feet from the basket. Stats to look for: PER: 14.26, 3p%: 41.8, ppr: -3.6, Reb-r: 6.5, FT/FG: 12.

More later.

WD and I have been working on a series of posts concerning rebuilding and what it takes to make a good team. From asking who would be a good big man running mate for Al Jefferson to talking about the qualities of good teams, we have sort of avoided the big pink elephant in the room that no one really seems to be addressing in this worst of seasons: Is Big Al a player you can build your franchise around? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

For all the talk about having a solid 20/10 guy on the roster, Jefferson’s game is not as clear-cut good as one might think. In fact, there are some troubling aspects of the young man’s game that should give the Wolves’ front office pause when considering him as a cornerstone at 600 First Avenue.

First of all, Jefferson has an overall +/- efficiency differential of –14.6. In plain English, this means that for every 100 possessions that Jefferson is on the court, he gives up 14.6 points to the opposition. The lion’s share of this inefficiency comes on the defensive end of the court where Big Al gives up a hefty 13.7 points. Unfortunately, for all of his offensive prowess (and he truly is a dominant offensive player), he is such a terrible defender that his 20 ppg average is completely wiped out by his opponents’ jump in offensive proficiency when matched up against the big fella.

Here’s the rub: Big Al’s +/- numbers are in the context of 5 man rotations; one can never be sure how much of the defensive fall out is Big Al’s fault instead of the team’s in general. In order to find the answer to this dilemma, we need to take a look at 5-man lineups to figure out how often Big Al is on the court in an optimal defensive setting and then measure the results against the raw +/- data.

Minnesota’s most effective overall unit is Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Chris Richard, Craig Smith, and Sebastian Telfair. Unfortunately, this unit doesn’t see the court enough to gather a proper sample size for comparison so we’ll have to fall back on more popular units. Of the top 20 most used 5-man floor units, Jefferson is part of the Wolves’ only 3 positive groupings (+14, +4, +1). Unfortunately, he is also part of the worst 3 groupings (-38, -36, -31).

Weighted against minutes played, Jefferson’s best unit is with Ryan Gomes, McCants, Theo Ratliff, and Bassy (30.32 minutes with a +26.73 eff rating). Unfortunately, he is also part of nearly every single negative unit with significant minutes played.

In other words, the T-Wolves suck so bad that it is hard to get a sense of just how bad Big Al is on the defensive end because he’s the guy who gets the most minutes and he’s on the court when the going is good and bad.

Historically speaking, Jefferson has always had a negative +/-. He has also played for terrible teams. The only other statistic that can give us a decent window to the future effectiveness of Big Al is his positional differential stats.

For dedicated Wolves fans what I am about to say is a bit cliché, but nearly each and every single negative to Big Al’s game can be traced to him playing at the 5. While he will likely never be a lock down defender, he is 100% serviceable at the 4; clearly outscoring, rebounding, and PERing his opponent when lined up at power forward. Unfortunately, the majority of the young man’s minutes are at the 5.

The bottom line here is that the Wolves and past Celtics teams were so colossally bad that it is virtually impossible to measure Big Al’s team impact. He’s always played somewhat out of position (remember, Ratliff came from Boston) and he has never had a competent point or big man to run up and down the court with. The man is an Association starter playing with backups.

As a big fan of stats, I hate to leave a question of effectiveness up in the air, but there is no good answer to the question of whether or not Al Jefferson is a cornerstone player. The man is a downright beast on the offensive end; compiling a PER that would rank in the top 5 of the league adjusted for a lack of defense.

I’d like to have a solid yes or no with this question. After all, the Wolves are competing for the title of Worst Team of All Time and, as a fan, I’d like to have a bit of certainty concerning the man that was traded for KG. Perhaps that is the biggest measure of Big Al’s effectiveness. Is he or is he not a worthy successor to KG in the eyes of fans? Is he a lunch pail kind of guy who will muck it up in the paint and wow the crowd with his professional consistency? I don’t know. The best guess I have is that Jefferson is a 1b type of talent; a cornerstone who needs a specific type of role player to thrive (cough...a legit 5...cough). What I do know is that if you trade a top-5 talent you shouldn’t have to have these sorts of conversations and that is the problem with Al Jefferson.

The San Antonio Spurs are a classy organization. Not just on the court, but from the front office to community outreach (as a former Texan I can speak to this one from experience), they exude professionalism, service before self, integrity, and excellence in all they do. (Now do you know what I did in San Antonio?)

Take a quick look at the Wolves’ website. Take a few moments to look around the site. Did you find the Scouting Report section that was last updated on December 15th? How about the Rhino Diaries page that saw one entry posted during pre-season? Did you notice that the community news page was last updated on December 19th? Did you notice that there is a community and a community news page? How about the Wolves Wrap page that was last updated in Week 5? You get the drift.

Now head over to the Spurs’ website. It’s almost as if the better team had the better website, right?

I bring this up to be a little glib but also to make a point about the culture of professionalism exhibited by my two favorite NBA franchises. Take a look at this in-depth article about the current state of affairs with the Spurs’ international draft picks (circa 2006). Try to find something that is out of date on their website. This sort of thing is about professionalism and pride. It’s about providing your customers with a solid product that they can be proud of. On court and off, the Spurs set the example. On court and off, the Wolves lag far behind.

One of the biggest topics of the year amongst Wolves fans is whether or not Al Jefferson is a true center. ESPN’s John Hollinger thinks so. Take a look at this interesting article about the number of good centers in the modern NBA. I think the positional stats for the Wolves and Big Al make the answer to this question quite clear.

Let’s take a quick run-down of Big Al’s to be or not to be center dilemma.

As a center, Jefferson averages the following (per 48):

PER: 23.8
Opponent PER: 20.9
PER difference: + 2.9
REB: 14.9
OpREB: 15.4
REB dif: - 0.5
P/48 min: 27.3
OpP/48 min: 17.3
P/48min dif: + 10
IFG: 45%
OIFG%: 58%
OIFG% dif: - 13

As a 4, Big Al puts up the following numbers (per 48):

PER: 26.5
OpPER: 15.9
PER dif: + 10.6
REB: 19.2
OpREB: 9.4
REB dif: + 9.8
P/48 min: 25.7
OpP/48 min: 19.5
Dif: + 6.2
IFG%: 43%
OpIFG%: 38%
Dif: + 5

Overall, as a 4 Big Al’s offensive and defensive efficiency numbers as a 4 are 88.9 and 89.1 respectively. As a 5, they run at 94.2 and 109.5. In other words, for every 100 possessions at the 4, Big Al nets a 0.2 point deficit while giving up a 15 point deficit at the 5.

As a 4, Big Al is simply dominant. If his PER at the 4 were transferred to the league leader board, he would rank as the 4th most effective player in all of basketball, behind LeBron James, Chris Paul, Amare Stoudemire, and Kevin Garnett.

If you extend the 4/5 dilemma to the Wolves as a team, it becomes even more obvious that Big Al is a beast at the 4. Non Al 4 numbers are stunningly low (cough…Craig Smith…cough); the position has a net loss of 2.6 in PER.

In other words, while Mr. Hollinger may want to call Big Al a center, the man is a 4, and a beastly 4 at that. If the Wolves really, really want to maximize their talent, they need to get this beast a running mate in the front court.

As much as I hate the KG trade, Big Al is one of the premier 4’s in the league and he is about 3-4 years away from entering his prime. He’s already shown he can dominate at the 4 (a’la Duncan) and if he’s going to be the cornerstone (and he could be a good one) then he absolutely needs a f’ing center to run with!!! Mr. Hollinger, you are wrong on this one.

I'm not the first to mention it, but Big Al's defense against the NBA's centers is neither sufficient now or in the long-term. Nothing against Al, but in order for him to dominate offensively over the next 10 years, he'll need a frontcourt partner to take the defensive load off of him.

I've never been a big fan of marquee free agent signings. Not only have today's successful teams been built through the draft and trades (San Antonio, Detroit, Dallas, Boston... Phoenix is an exception), but I don't trust free agents who play their butts off in a contract year and then go back to bad habits and a sense of entitlement when they've got $40+ million guaranteed (Kenyon Martin and Larry Hughes always come to mind, but Rashard Lewis may make me eat those words).