As much as I enjoy criticizing Kevin McHale, this bit over at Draft Express on a couple pre-draft events caught my eye in a positive light:

As usual, Portsmouth will be competing with the Nike Hoop Summit (which we’ll also be covering) for the attention of NBA executives—but unlike previous years (when it was held in Memphis), it will be more difficult for everyone to try and cover both—which means that some will have a decision to make. Considering that most of the players here are well known and it would be surprising if any first-round prospects emerged, it’s understandable why some will decide to go and see the international prospects playing in the Nike Hoop Summit (particularly Serge Ibaka and Alexis Ajinca), as people’s comfort level with them may not be quite as strong.

While we obviously don't know what the Wolves front office draft board looks like, they've been doing quite a bit of PR on their scouting activities lately. No doubt this is an effort to build fan confidence in the team's work ethic. While I do appreciate the effort, a confluence of news reports makes me a bit concerned.

Have you ever dated a girl who had an ex that you were friends with? If so, did you find it hard to still be chummy with that friend because he just couldn't get that you didn't appreciate him saying unkind things about the girl you were moving forward with? And so goes the last thing I'll say about KG's classless performance on Friday night. He was paid well and well liked but he's simply not in the picture anymore and he just can't seem to say the right things about the team and players (and fans) who left him behind...rather well off, it should be added.

Sooooooo...in the spirit of moving forward without the nonsense, let's forget about a recap of the Celts game (quick rundown: Bassy and Brewer played well except their last plays, Big Al shouldn't attempt 10 foot running baby hooks with the game on the line, Witt shouldn't call for an entry play into the low post to a guy who can't handle the ball away from the basket with 16 seconds left on the clock, etc) and update our Wolves Draft Board

Tier 1 Players (players you have to draft no matter what if given the chance):

1. Michael Beasley- Folks, with each passing game it is becoming more and more obvious that Beasley is far and away the best player in the upcoming draft and the only guy who warrants aa must pick status. He’s averaging 24.6 points and 12.6 rebounds a game while shooting nearly 57% from the floor. He has a stunning 38 PER while gathering almost 30% of his team’s total rebounds. He’s also averaging 2 blocks and 1.3 steals per contest. He has shown improvement on the defensive end as well as a clear potential to play the 3 in the Association. He is this year’s Kevin Durant. Talent: 5 Crunches. Need: 4 Crunches.

Tier 2 Players (players which can be ranked for value or traded):

1. Donte Green- The Syracuse freshman is rapidly improving as the season wears on. A 6’10” combo forward with unlimited range and silky smooth athleticism, Green would instantly provide the Wolves with a legit perimeter threat at their 2nd weakest position: the 3. Talent: 4 Crunches. Need: 4 Crunches.
2. Ty Lawson- I know, I know, Derrick Rose is a nice player with tantalizing athletic ability. However, Ty Lawson is quietly putting together the best season at the point in college basketball and it’s really not close. For those who haven’t seen him play, Lawson is essentially a right-handed version of Mike Conley, an undersized but ultra-quick point who makes smart decisions and controls the tempo. Take a look at the following point stats:

   Player PPR Age Ast/40 Stls FG%
   Lawson 3.74 20 8.3 1.9 53
   Augustin 2.36 20 6.7 1.3 47.8%
   Rose -0.60 19 6.2 1.2 48%

   Going deeper, Lawson has a higher rebound rate, a higher per40 efficiency rate, and is a better free throw shooter than the other two players. He is a truest point in the draft (should he enter it). Talent: 4 Crunches. Need: 4 Crunches.

3. Derrick Rose- I know that Augustin has slightly better stats than does Rose but here is where the physical attributes come into play. Augustin is not a burner like Lawson and his hustle stats don’t blow you away enough to rank him above a 19 year old point who is 6’4” and can jump out of the gym. Talent: 4 Crunches. Need: 4 Crunches.

Tier 3 Players (not worth the hassle in the top-5; trade down)

1. Roy Hibbert: Ok, did any of you see the game against Memphis where Hibbert got worked by a 6’9” Joey Dorsey? That’s a little worrisome. However, he’s increased his numbers each and every year in college and he’s a smart player with soft hands, but is this the guy the Wolves want with their small-ball lineup? That being said, he’s polished and has performed and improved on a consistent basis. Talent: 3 Crunches. Need: 3 Crunches.
2. Deandre Jordan- Yes, he’s big and athletic. However, do you really want the Wolves to draft a guy who shoots 75% from the floor and 30% from the line? Red flag!!! Red flag!!! More red flags are a lack of blocks, steals, and a dominant rebound rate. Talent: 4 Crunches. Need: 2 Crunches.
3. DJ Augustin- As you may have noticed from the statistics in the prior section, Augustin is having a pretty damn good season. Out of the 3 points, he is the best outside shooter but his physical attributes are questionable at the next level. Talent: 3 Crunches. Need: 3 Crunches.

Overall Rankings:

1. Michael Beasley
2. Donte Green
3. Ty Lawson
4. Derrick Rose
5. Roy Hibbert
6. Deandre Jordan
7. DJ Augustin
8. Chris Douglas-Roberts
9. Brook Lopez
10. DeVon Hardin
11. OJ Mayo

As it stands right now, if the Wolves have the opportunity to draft Beasley, it should be a no brainer. I have gone back and forth about the young man’s defense and where he would fit in on the squad, but the simple fact remains that he’s a 19 year old 6’9” player who hustles, rebounds, scores, and dominates. He’s one of those players where you find a place for him to play if you get the chance to get him.

Moving down the list, there’s really no other player in this draft that would provide the Wolves with a ton of value compared to trading down. Ty Lawson is the best point in this draft and he’ll likely go in the teens. If the Wolves could be in a position to draft Derrick Rose and then move him for a later pick (Lawson) and some other considerations, they would be well served to make that move. Rose is tantalizing because he can jump high and make crazy layups. Lawson is tantalizing because he makes the right pass and is the fastest player on the court. Green is really the only other college player the Wolves should toy with drafting in the top 3. He’s a big combo forward who can hit from long range and take his man off the dribble. A 2 man in/out game with Green and Jefferson would be problematic for opposing defenses. The Wolves need a perimeter player that can line up on Big Al’s side of the court and force defenses to be honest. Yes, the team needs a point and a center, but if we’re talking top 3 picks, there aren’t any 1s or 5s that have that kind of value in this year’s draft…Derrick Rose included.

Overall Position Need

1. Perimeter-proficient combo swingman
2. Defensively minded center
3. Point guard
4. Shooting guard
5. Power forward

That should about wrap up this edition of the Draft Board. I encourage all of you Wolves fans to start taking a good look at Donte Green as well as thinking about the benefits of trading down for a player like Lawson or Hibbert if the team can get enough in return. Also, the better Bassy plays, the less valuable Rose becomes; especially when players like the aforementioned Lawson and Augustin are available. Time to start thinking about Beasley, Green and trading down.

OK, I’ve gone over what the Blue and Green have and what it would take for the Wolves to be active in this year’s free agent market (answer: a lot; realistically, the Puppies will have to wait a year or two for some cap space to clear). Let’s break from free agent wonkery and move on to some draft talk.

While I make no bones about my Derrick Rose man crush, at this point in the game the only sure entries into next year’s draft are college seniors. Is there some solid NBA talent among the class of 08? Let's take a look:

1- Roy Hibbert, C- Georgetown: Roy got the short end of the Jeff Green stick when his running buddy decided to bolt for the Association. Hibbert is a legitimate 7 footer who has improved his field goal percentage, blocks, points, and rebounds during each of his 3 years in school (he has also decreased his turnovers and he avoids a ton of fouls). He doesn’t pass well and isn’t really all that athletic, but, as evidenced by the low turnovers and high shooting percentage (67% last year), he has soft hands and serviceable skills. He could be a solid 5 on a team looking to build around the 4 spot.

a. Value to the Wolves at the 15 spot: 4 1/2 out of 5 Crunches.

b. Value to the Wolves in the 1-5 spots: 1 out of 5 Crunches. (This is based on if the Wolves get Hibbert, it is likely that either the big name underclass talent didn’t come out and the draft is shallow or the B&G got ping-ponged to the lowest possible draft position and they once again get their Laettner while Zo and Shaq are already off the board.)

c. Value to the Wolves in the 2nd round: UA…he ‘aint making it this far.

d. Upside for the Wolves regardless of spot: 3 out of 5 Crunches. He should be a nice 5, but so was (insert every other Wolves big man under McHale's tutelage here)

e. Verdict: Definitely not worthy of a top 5 pick, and questionable between 6 and 10 (depending on other available underclassmen), but would be a solid addition anywhere after the 10 spot. Baring a trade, the Wolves will likely not end up with Mr. Hibbert as they will be picking in the top 5 (likely 3), and their Miami pick looks in danger of being sucked up by a sucky team (it’s lottery protected in 08). The only hope is that Miami squeaks into the playoffs and a ton of freshmen come out, pushing Hibbert down to the 15 spot (or by trading up.) (BTW: The Wolfies could back themselves into a nice pick with the Heat if Shaq continues his rapid decline and Wade continues to miss large stretches of each season. It's lottery protected this year, top 10 the next, through 6 the year after that, and unprotected the following year.)

2- Randal Falker, F-Southern Illinois: The Missouri Valley Conference preseason player of the year is a high-energy 6’7” forward who can rebound and defend while shooting a decent field goal percentage. He fouls a little too much and he can’t shoot free throws, but he has the tools to be a solid association bench player.

a. Value to the Wolves with 1st pick: 0 out of 5 Crunches--it would be insane.

b. Value to the Wolves for the possible Miami pick: 1 out of 5 Crunches—unless the B &G decide to get rid of Gomes and go with a cheaper option, we already have a 6’7” guy who can do all of the things listed above (and, hopefully, then some). That being said, this guy will probably be available in the 2nd round.

c. Value to the Wolves in the 2nd round: 2 out of 5 Crunches (see above reasoning)

d. Upside for the Wolves: 1 out of 5 Crunches—Between Smith, Brewer, and Gomes, this type of player simply isn’t needed on the Wolves’ roster. Unless we’re really trying to cut costs and he’s still available in the 2nd round.

e. Verdict: If the B&G go with Falker at the theoretical Miami 15 spot, it’s probably a stretch for something they don’t need. However, if they get him in the 2nd round after not resigning Smith and Gomes in an attempt to make a run at a quality free agent, then it would be a decent pick.

3- Kyle Weaver, G- Washington State: If he and his backcourt partner and fellow Pan Am Games running mate Derrick Low could switch sizes, they might have something. Instead, Low is a 6 nothing shooting guard and Weaver is a 6’6” point. Together they make the best and most experienced backcourt in the nation; alone they leave quite a bit to be desired at the next level. The Wolves don’t need another 6’2” shooting guard, but Weaver could be a nice option for the Wolves if they get a big man with their first pick and other point guards are off the board in the 2nd round.

a. Value to the Wolves with the 1st pick: negative 20,000 Crunches

b. Value to the Wolves for the possible Miami pick: -5 Crunches. (This could be higher if all the underclass PG's don't come out/are off the board and the Wolves take a big man with the 1st pick.)

c. Value to the Wolves in the 2nd round: 3 out of 5 Crunches if they took a big man with their first pick, 0 if they get a PG.

d. Upside for the Wolves: 2 out of 5 Crunches—Nothing much to get excited about. He could be a nice bench player for a cash strapped young team trying to clear space for the post 09 season free agent bonanza.

e. Verdict: Weaver’s stock should continue to climb during his senior year. He and Low were the only teammates chosen for the Pan Am Games and he could be a decent backup should the Wolves need a PG with their 2nd round pick.

Other names to think about:

1. DJ White, F- Indiana: Big body; played well against Oden last year; continues to improve.
2. Chris Lofton, G- Tennessee: shoots a lot of threes with an average percentage
3. Jaycee Caroll, G- Utah State: Short, amazing three ball. (Better value than Lofton.)
4. Sean Singletary, G- Virginia: Good floor general at a decent program. Could be a very good 2nd round pick.
5. Derrick Low, G- Washington State: Dynamic scorer on a tough, well-coached team. Could run the point in the right system.
6. Longar Longar, C- Oklahoma: Rochester, MN native; freakish athlete

All in all, Hibbert is the only senior realistically worth taking with the Wolves' first round pick (hopefully plural). This draft should be deep with underclass talent and the Wolves should be picking rather high. If, by a miracle, Miami makes the playoffs and the Wolves can move up via trade or get Hibbert at 15, he would be an excellent value. Otherwise, the rest of the bunch is strictly 2nd round or free agent material for the B&G.

Next up: Underclassmen.

Rick Alonzo outlined the future first round pick situation in his article today, but I wanted to follow-up with some more detail:

Picks the Timberwolves owe other teams
• 2008 1st round pick to LA Clippers (Jaric/Cassell trade), the pick is Top 10 protected until 2011 and then unprotected in 2012
• 2008 2nd round pick to Detroit (pick can be conveyed in 2009 at the Wolves option)

Picks owed to the Timberwolves
• 2008 2nd round pick from Miami (via Boston, Szczerbiak/Davis trade)
• 2009 1st round pick from Boston (Garnett trade), the pick is Top 3 protected in 2009, Top 2 protected in 2010 and 2011 and unprotected in 2012

And just to give you some perspective on what the Wolves have done in the recent past, I compiled details from the most recent drafts.

2007 Draft
• #7 (Corey Brewer) was earned fair and square by the Wolves
• #41 (Chris Richard) was acquired from Philadelphia in 2006
• The Wolves' own 2nd round pick (#36) was traded to Golden State in 2002 along with Dean Garrett for Marc Jackson. The Warriors picked JermaReo Davidson and traded him to Charlotte with Jason Richardson

2006 Draft
• #6 (Brandon Roy) was traded to Portland for #7 (Randy Foye) and cash
• #36 (Craig Smith) was acquired from Boston in the Szczerbiak/Davis trade
• #37 (Bobby Jones) was traded to Philadelphia for their 2007 pick (see above) and cash
• #57 (Loukas Mavrokefalidis) was acquired from Phoenix for Nikoloz Tskitishvili

2005 Draft
• #14 (Rashad McCants) was the Wolves' own pick
• #47 (Bracey Wright) was also the Wolves' own pick. Did you know Bracey had his own website? He signed with Greek squad Aris BC this summer.