Forget the possibility of a win this afternoon. As a long time Wolves fan, I feel competent in appealing to the gods of anti-karma to pull this one out for Nelly's bad guys.
In a bit of statistical synchronicity the Randy Wittman helmed Wolves are going to hit both the mark at which former coach Dwayne Casey was fired (40 games into the season) and the 82nd game of Witt’s T-Wolves’ head coach career in the very same contest: at Golden State, 3:00 P.M.—be there or be square.
Let’s deal with these milestones one at a time.
Dwayne Casey was a 2nd year coach with a 20-20 record at the time of his firing. He took a team with a starting lineup of Mark Blount, Ricky Davis, Kevin Garnett, Trenton Hassell, and Mike James to an even-Steven .500 mark. Granted, he got to this mark by winning 4, losing 4, but considering the talent on the squad, and what they are doing this year, it is a damn-near miracle that they played as well as they did. (Just ask Pat Riley.)
Ricky Davis is averaging a 6-year low 14.5 ppg in Miami while compiling a career low 12.2 PER. Mark Blount is his partner in Southern Florida crime; averaging a paltry 5.6 ppg, 2.6 reb, and a career low PER of 9.3. Trenton Hassell is currently stealing money from the Dallas Mavs. He and his $4.35 million salary have played 319 minutes in Big-D while scoring a grand total of 53 points in only 25 games. Mr. Hassell has a hefty 5.6 PER, which is not too far below his career mark of 8.8…and yes, the Wolves gave this guy a decent long-term contract. Mike James is stealing money in Houston; averaging 7.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg, and 1.8 apg with a 10.4 PER for nearly $6 million/year. KG is…well, he’s the best player on the best team in the league.
Coming off the bench, coach Casey played a rotation of Craig Smith, Troy Hudson, Justin Reed, and Mark Madsen. Mr. Reed currently plays for the Austin Toros of the D-League, T-Hud’s career is over after a hip surgery (the Wolves owe one more year on his buy-out), Mad-Dog has a blog, and the Rhino is an effective player on the offensive end of the court.
During his 40 game stint in 2006-07, Casey’s Wolves largest loss was 29 points while their largest margin of victory was 19. Their longest winning streak was 4 games and their longest losing streak was 4 as well. Overall, to include both Wittman and Casey, the team ranked 25th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defense. With a Pythagorean W-L mark of 30-52, the 2006-07 Wolves lost games by an average of 3.6 ppg. Seeing that Casey’s squad lost by an average of only 1.5 ppg, Wittman’s –2.1 contribution to the mix seems to put the team’s post-Casey struggles in a bit more troubling light.
Upon taking control of the Blue and Gold, Wittman’s squad provided stark relief from Casey’s up and down, win 4, lose 4 approach. Witt simply lost 4, won 1, lost 3, won 1, and so on and so forth. In an especially embarrassing stretch to close out the year with a draft pick still in hand (which they used to select a 185 lbs wing man who can’t shoot), the Wolves went 5-15. In that 20 game stretch (6 of which were without KG), the Wolves were outscored by 8.55 ppg. In that miserable 1/4th of a season the Wolves lost their 15 defeats by a combined total of 189 points while seeing an advantage of 18 points in their 5 wins. In 20 losses, Dwayne Casey’s Wolves lost by a combined total of 196 points, only 7 more than what Witt accomplished in 5 fewer games.
In the 1st 40 games of the 2007-08 season, the Randy Wittman led Wolves are 5-35; losing their games by an average of 9.7 points while ranking dead last in defense and 27th in offensive efficiency. The Wolves’ Pythagorean W-L mark is a paltry 8-32 and they are at or in the bottom 3 of the league in ppg, FTM, FTA, assists, assist differential, free throw differential, and FG% differential.
Individually, the Wolves are an even bigger mess under Witt’s questionable tutelage. Take Gerald Green for instance. Last year in Boston, Green averaged 17.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.7 ast per 36 minutes while shooting 42% from the floor in 1779 minutes. This year, while playing in about 1/2 of the team’s games, Green has scored a total of 96 points in 249 minutes while shooting 7 points lower than last year from the floor and seeing his PER drop by nearly 5 whole points. Ryan Gomes has seen a dip in points, minutes, FG%, rebounds, and assists. After a terrible start he is finally putting things together but this should be viewed as a return to form rather than being “coached up” by the current Wolves staff. From Chris “yo-yo minutes” Richard to Corey Brewer, to a front line of Gomes, Smith, and Big Al, there hasn’t been a single instance in the 1st half of this season (outside of Jerry Sichting’s victory over Phoenix in Witt’s absence) where you’ve been able to look at the squad and say, “That’s some mighty fine coaching.” In reality, it’s been quite to the contrary.
Moving on to Witt’s full 82 game schedule, his 17-65 mark would rank 2nd all time in terms of losses to the Jerry Rodgers led 1991-92 squad that went 15-67. Unlike the 91-92 squad (who kept the point differential, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency out of the league’s cellar), this year’s squad is a honorary expansion team. In the grand scheme of Wolves-dom, Wittman’s 82-game performance is in direct competition with Bill Blair’s 1994-95 team for the title of Worst Wolves Team of All-Time.
With a starting lineup of Winston Garland, Christian Laettner, Isiah Rider, Sean Rooks, and Doug West the 94-95 Wolves lost their games by 9 points/contest while ranking 26th out of 27 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. (Just for the record, I remember calling into the Chad and Barrero show to advocate picking Alan Houston and Nick Van Exel in the Rider draft. It remains the only time I’ve ever called into a talk show.) Anywho, Witt’s squad only needs to maintain its current pace to out-suck the worst Wolves team of all time; finishing at or near the bottom of the league in off/def efficiency and point differential. With a 15.1 point disparity in their last 10 losses, the Wolves should make their way past the 10 point differential any game now.
Getting back to player development, the Wolves have 8 players 25 years old or younger. 3 of the group are starters (Jefferson, Gomes, Bassy), 3 see significant minutes off the bench (McCants, Smith, Brewer), and Green and Richard ride the pine at around 10mpg. However, if you look at the last 10 games (1/4th of the season), Brewer is averaging 18 mpg with 1.8 reb, 1 apg, and 4.4 ppg; Richard is averaging 10.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg, and 2.4 rpg; Gerald Green is putting up 13.7 mpg, 5.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, and 1.2 rpg (cough…better than Brewer…cough); the Rhino is averaging 20.7 mpg, 9.6 ppg, and 4.4 rpg; and Bassy has hit a bit of a wall while going 33% from the floor with 5.8 apg, 7 ppg, and 2.7 rpg. All of these numbers are trending downwards. All of these players are showing little to no development; some of them being jerked in and out of the line up with 17 minutes one game, a DNP-CD the next; some of them being put out into 5 man rotations that clearly show a history of malfunction; some of them seeing nothing approaching consistency…the list goes on and on. One of the big hopes for this season was to find out if Shaddy could play the 2 and Foye handle the 1. Not only do we not know the answers to those questions (we’re pretty sure about the former), but we likely won’t have a good enough sample size to make an informed decision about either scenario before the draft.
The bottom line here is that Randy Wittman has underperformed even the lowest of expectations during his first full season at the head of the Wolves’ bench. Not only has he put up the 2nd worst 82 game record in Wolves history, but his team loses games by a greater margin and with lesser efficiency than any other Timberwolves team to ever take the court. This is no small achievement…as someone who sat through the 94-95 season and games at the Dome can tell you.
Even more significantly, this lack of performance cannot be solely traced to the loss of Kevin Garnett. It is arguable that this year’s supporting cast is every bit as competent as the roster that was trotted out during KG’s last year, especially taking into consideration the woeful performances that former Wolves are chalking up this season. Nearly every single player in the KG trade (outside of Big Al and recently Ryan Gomes) has seen his performance lag when compared to previous seasons. Granted, a lot of this blame lies with the front office (a whole other topic), but you would be very hard pressed to look at the Wolves’ roster and point to a single player that has developed under Witt’s tutelage.
While I obviously can’t speak to what happens in practice and behind closed doors, Wittman’s approach to poor play has been to call out the manliness of his overmatched squad; as if all their problems of rotations, 5-man units, shooting percentages, and free throw discrepancies could be solved with a simple “cowboy up.” At some point this sort of approach will net diminishing returns…which is a scary proposition with a 5-35 club.
Most frustratingly for fans is the growing lack of anything to care about with this team. We’re told that we should withhold additional judgment until the return of Ratliff and Foye. We’re told that this team is young and that there will be growing pains. We’re told that one of the big payoffs of the KG trade will be cashed in during the next 2 drafts. Yet, we’re left with a product that plays (and loses) in a predictable manner, night in and night out. We’re left with a squad that will most likely let its 2 biggest trade assets (Ratliff’s expiring money and Blount’s trade exception) pass with zero action. We’re left hoping for a series of draft picks that will be made by the same folks that took 2 6’4” guards and a 185 lbs swingman instead of players like Danny Granger (a 3), Brandon Roy (a 2...wait, they did take him), and Sean Williams (a 4/5)…you know, players that actually would have complimented KG. Worst of all, we’re left with a coach that has not only underperformed his predecessor by 15 games through the 1st 40 games of this season (compared to last year), but who has also put up the 2nd worst Wolves record of all-time over an 82 game span.
Perhaps the Wolves marketing department should take a lesson from Witt; maybe Sweetwater Jones should yell at the fans to suck it up and take it like a man. Yeah, that will work for a little while.
UPDATE: For an additional take on the 1/2 way point in the season, read Peter Weinhold's excellent post at Hoop Springs Eternal.
