First of all, I would like to direct readers to a correction made in response to one of our readers. I had made a rather significant error in my post about Theo Ratliff and a Fantasy GM deal with Memphis. I have made an update in the post and I encourage all of you to read it here. One of the great things about blogs is that our readers are our 2nd line of editing. If you ever see any errors on Canis Hoopus, please point them out to us and they will be corrected/amended. Thanks again to the alert reader for pointing out this error.

For a few months now I have been running a feature here at Canis Hoopus about the upcoming draft. You can read the latest installment here. For those of you who don’t enjoy clicking through links, here’s the list from the last post (college players only):

1. Michael Beasley
2. Donte Green
3. Ty Lawson
4. Derrick Rose
5. Roy Hibbert
6. Deandre Jordan
7. DJ Augustin
8. Chris Douglas-Roberts
9. Brook Lopez
10. Devon Hardin
11. OJ Mayo

Before I take a bit different approach to this feature, here’s the updated list:

1. Michael Beasley
2. Roy Hibbert
3. Donte Greene
4. Derrick Rose
5. Ty Lawson
6. Brook Lopez
7. Chris Douglas-Roberts
8. DJ Augustin
9. Hasheem Thabeet
10. Devon Hardin

A few notes:

Roy Hibbert is really growing on me. He is a 4-year starter who has shown consistent improvement over the course of his career, he operates as a point-center in Georgetown’s offense so he is comfortable with the ball as well as being the best-passing big man in college ball, and he has legit-size and skills on both sides of the court. Deandre Jordan has been replaced by Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet is a project center every bit as much as Jordan is, but his defensive game is more advanced and he is starting to show signs of being able to change games on that end of the court. It should be noted that he does so in the middle of a 2-3 zone, but he seems to have the physical skills to transfer this ability to the next level. I’m slowly softening my do-not-draft-Derrick-Rose stance. He’s a hell of a player and if Beasley, Hibbert, and Donte Greene are off the board, I think the Wolves should jump at him.

One thing I would like to add to the draft board series (to be updated once a month) is a draft strategy proposal. The Wolves have a lot of small-change assets that they can use to great effect in this year’s draft. Having a lot of picks sounds nice in theory, but once you start attaching names like Louis Williams and Bracey Wright to 2nd round picks, some of the luster begins to fade from thinking the team has so many options to work with.

I am of the opinion that the Wolves need to identify 2-3 1st rounders in this year’s draft and then move every and anything they can from their cache of small-change assets to get these guys in a Wolves’ uniform. What “small-change” assets do they have to work with?

• 2 top 2nd round picks in the 2008 draft (likely picks 31 and 32)
• Miami Heat 1st round pick from the Toine deal
• $5 million trade exception from the Toine deal (Mark Blount)
• Boston Celtic 1st round pick from the KG deal
• Antoine Walker’s expiring contract
• Randy Foye or Rashad McCants

I know, I know…Shaddy and Foye aren’t small change. However, they are basically the same player and they could provide value for the team to move up and get a player they want/need that does something…well, different than what a 6’4” undersized shooting/3rd guard can bring to the squad. What should the Wolves do?

1. Target a scoring forward with the top pick: as I have made clear on several previous occasions (the latest being here), the Wolves need a scorer who can get to the line and either make perimeter shots or break down their defender and get to the rim. Preferably, this player has size and is able to play the 3: a position the team gets absolutely torched at. Michael Beasley is the obvious choice here, followed by Donte Greene and Italian import Danilo Gallinari. Since I obviously don’t follow Euroleague competition, I’ll have to hope that the Wolves have a tip-top international scouting operation to choose between Greene and Gallinari. One option with the top pick (should Beasley be off the board) is to draft Gallinari and tell him to stay in Europe for another year in hopes that he continues to develop against top European competition and that the Wolves can hold on to their top-10 pick which is owed to the LA Clippers. Whatever the case, final result: Beasley, Greene, or Gallinari.
2. Move up to draft a center: There are 3 centers that the Wolves should consider in this draft (in order): Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, and Hasheem Thabeet. In order to get Hibbert or Lopez, the team will likely have to move into the top-10. Possible targets: trade Shaddy or Foye (likely Shaddy) and the Heat and Celtic picks to the Charlotte Bobcats for their top-10 pick. Currently, the Bobcats are slated to draft 6th. Trade Antoine Walker and Heat pick + 1 2nd rounder to the Bucks for Bobby Simmons and top pick. The Bucks are currently slated to draft 8th. Final result: Hibbert or Lopez.
3. Target tall shooting guard with perimeter skills: we’re talking about Chase Budinger and Chris Douglas-Roberts here. Most mock drafts have these guys going in the 10-15 range. Possible targets: trade Corey Brewer to the Suns for the Atlanta pick (currently 11th). Trade 2 2nd rounders and the trade exception to the Suns for the Atlanta pick and Raja Bell. Trade the trade exception and 1 2nd rounder plus Heat/Celtic pick to the Kings for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and their 1st round pick (currently 12th). Final result: Budinger or CDR. (BTW: you know Phoenix would jump at the Brewer for Atlanta pick deal.)

Ultimately, the Wolves have to realize that a lot of small-change assets are only valuable when packaged together for specific players that fill needs for the squad. What is worth more: Chris Douglas-Roberts or Jason Thompson and Omer Asik (2 players listed as the Wolves’ top 2nd round picks at Draft Express)? Because of this, Fred Hoiberg’s recent comments should give you some pause:

"We're going to get a good pick," said Hoiberg, who recently returned from a long scouting trip in Europe. "If the ping-pong balls fell where the records are, we'd have the second pick of the draft behind Miami, and then we've also got Miami's second-round pick [from a trade].

"So, right now we would have No. 2, No. 31 and No. 32. So, we're going to get good players at those positions."

Here is a list of players taken at 31 and 32 in recent drafts:

• 2007: Carl Landry and Gabe Pruitt
• 2006: James White and Steve Novak
• 2005: Salim Stoudamire and Daniel Ewing
• 2004: Anderson Varejao and Jackson Vroman
• 2003: Maciej Lampe and Jason Kapono
• 2002: Steve Logan and Roger Mason Jr.
• 2001: Trenton Hassell and Gilbert Arenas
• 2000: Marko Jaric and Dan Lahghi

As if the Hassel and Jaric bifecta wasn’t enough, the ratio of Agent Zeros to Dan Lahghis should be enough to dissuade anyone from thinking the Wolves could a) find themselves in a position where a Gilbert-esque player exists in the 2nd round and b) be smart enough to select said player. Of course, for Grandpa Sid, an untested assistant GM + 2 2nd rounders = a brighter future. Just for additional kicks, here’s the list of Wolves 2nd rounders during that same period of time:

• 2007: Chris Richard
• 2006: Craig Smith, Bobby Jones, and Loukas Mavrokefalidis
• 2005: Bracey Wright
• 2004: Blake Stepp
• 2003: Rick Rickert
• 2002: Marcus Taylor
• 2001: Loren Woods
• 2000: Igor Rakocevic

Just for fun, let’s add the 1999 Draft’s 2nd rounder, Louis Bullock. It never hurts to mention again and again that outside of the Joe Smith fiasco and the Randy Foye pick, nothing set the Wolves back quite as much as their performance in the 1999 Draft, which just happened to be one of the best drafts in the past 20 years. Instead of Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, and Corey Maggette, the Wolves took Wally Szczerbiak. Instead of Ron Artest, James Posey, Devean George, or Andrei Kirikenko, they took Will Avery. Ah yes, a bright future provided by those who have supplied the darkness.

Anywho…

If the Wolves can leave this draft with a scoring 3, a toolsy 5, and a perimeter-proficient 2, what more could they ask for in the future with the Heat pick, the Celtic pick, the 2 2nd rounders, 2 6’4” guards, a trade exception, and Toine’s expiring contract? Again, for kicks and giggles, here’s how the draft could play out with the targeted approach:

1. Bassy/Jaric
2. (CDR/Budinger)/(Shaddy/Foye)/(Brewer)
3. Gomes/(Beasley/Greene/Gallinari)/(Brewer)
4. Big Al/Rhino
5. (Hibbert/Lopez)/Big Al

Best case scenario:

1. Bassy/Jaric
2. Budinger/Shaddy/Brewer
3. Beasley/Gomes/Brewer
4. Big Al/Rhino
5. Hibbert/Big Al

The point here is that the fact the Wolves have a lot of small chips is meaningless if they just let them play out. They need to target players in this year’s draft and move on them with whatever available resources they have. Get the young core in place, don’t worry about future extra picks, and move, move, move on players that fit the bill in this year’s draft: a scoring 3, a 5, and a big 2 guard.

Until later.

PS: Keep your eye on whether or not Nick Calathes enters the draft. He should stay in college another year or two but he’s a Stop-n-Pop dark horse; one of the smartest b-ball players I have ever seen at the freshman level who would make an excellent compliment to Bassy at the point.

With the trade deadline approaching, I thought it would be fun to take a look at how much activity has gone down in recent deadlines. It was. In fact the trade deadline is probably my favorite day of the season. Let it be known that I also prefer to play the offseason in NBA 2k8 to actually playing the game... I know, I need help.

As far as what to expect between now and the end of the day tomorrow, I wouldn't get too excited. Four stars being moved in the span of three weeks is pretty incredible in and of itself. I think the Wolves have a potential role to play by taking on a bit of salary from a luxury tax team (Elson from San Antonio helps them AND gets us a cheap center), but other than facilitating another deal they have no immediate need to get something done.

In his most recent post, fellow Canis Hoopus contributor Finewein wrote this:

My colleague Stop and Pop has been crunching stats and scouting college ballers for a couple of months now, and has come up with some fascinating suggestions on how to improve the club. Here's where I'll part company a bit, because as long as the Iron Ranger is running this team, I think that that effort leads to crushing disappointment. As the newly appointed Minister of Hindsight, if we had drafted Josh Howard, Danny Granger and Joakim Noah, along with keeping Brandon Roy, would Kevin Garnett still be on this club? McHale has gone his own way in the draft, mostly because he still believes his basketball IQ is better than anyone else's. Whatever anyone else would come up with is speculative at best.

In the grand tradition of continuing to build up for a big disappointment, for several months now I have been hitting on the point (to great extent) that the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff is the single most important movable asset the Timberwolves have to use in their rebuilding efforts and that it must be traded for things like additional salary and draft picks. Unfortunately, letting the deal expire has become a talking point of sorts among local sports writers/personalities. From Paul Allen to Mike Max to Mark Rosen to Sid, it is widely believed that Ratliff’s expiring contract allows the club additional space to rebuild. Here’s a particularly good example of this phenomenon from Steven Litel:

The 2007-08 season was lost for the Timberwolves weeks, if not months, ago, but Ratliff will now be able to fulfill his ultimate role for this team. His presence in the locker room is a steadying force and a lesson in professionalism. While teaching the young Wolves almost through osmosis, Ratliff will play out this evaluation year and suit up for another team in 2008-09. The cap room from his expiring contract will give Minnesota more choices than they are used to possessing.

No, no, no, no, no, and more no. There are no additional choices. There are no more options. The only thing Ratliff’s expiring contract does is save Glen Taylor’s wallet. There is nothing wrong with this fact; after all, Mr. Taylor has shown in the past that he is willing to operate above the luxury threshold. What is frustrating about all of this is that I have yet to see a single sports news outlet in Minnesota actually cite the facts: regardless of Ratliff’s money, the Wolves will enter the 2008/09 season with nearly $55 million in contracts spread out over 8 active players, a top 1st round draft pick, and 2 bought out contracts (Juwan Howard and Troy Hudson…yes, the team will still be paying these castoffs). The cap is projected at $58 million. With no big deal allowing them to operate over the cap (cough…Ratliff’s money…cough), exactly how will the Wolves have more choices?

Zero. Damn. Sense.

I’ve been running a feature on the site called Mega-Deal Mondays. You can read them here and here. Aside from being a small way to dull the pain in a 10-win season, the posts are just small examples that show the importance of being able to operate above the cap a’la Portland so that the team can gather enough assets to maximize their chances in the draft. Ratliff’s deal only provides options if it is converted into young players/draft picks + additional salary that will expire over the next 2 years…which is when the Wolves will finally be able to operate efficiently and have options in free agency. Just for old times sake, here’s the final pre-draft deadline Mega-Deal Monday of the year:

To the Grizz:

• Theo Ratliff
• Rashad McCants
• 1 or 2 of the Wolves' 2nd round picks in this year’s draft

To the Wolves:

• Darko Milicic
• Brian Cardinal
• Kyle Lowry
• Memphis’ 1st round pick-preferably their own, but Lakers pick will do; perhaps package the Heat and Celtic picks as well to get the Grizz's top pick

Why this works? Memphis gets to clear a ton of salary in their ongoing fire sale, including the horrible Cardinal contract. They get a young shooting guard that fits in the up-tempo style that the team is going for with Mike Conley and Rudy Gay. They get rid of one of their many point guards and…did I mention that they’ll clear about $22 million off the books next year if this deal were to be made?

For the Wolves, they get rid of one of the McCants/Foye biumvirate. They take on decent sized contracts in Darko and Cardinal, but this just allows them to stop pretending that Craig Smith wasn’t going to cost them upwards of $3 million/year or that they wouldn’t have to sign another frontcourt player to a mid-level type contract just to fill out the 2008/09 roster. Let Smith go, forget bringing on another frontcourt body in the off-season, let Foye try the 2 with Marko Jaric and Corey Brewer, and enjoy the additional 1st rounder. Oh yeah, they get another point, which would allow them to focus on the 3 and 5 in this year’s draft.

Folks, no matter what happens, Ratliff’s money is already out the door. The Wolves will not, I repeat, will not be players in any sort of free agent market until, at the very least, after the 2009/10 season. Just for kicks and giggles, here’s how this deal would affect the 2008/09 roster:

1. Bassy/Lowry
2. Jaric/Foye/Brewer
3. Gomes/(Beasley/Greene/Gallinari)/Brewer
4. Big Al/Cardinal
5. Darko/Big Al

The Wolves could then use the additional 1st rounder to target a center (Hasheem Thabeet, Brook Lopez, Devon Hardin, Roy Hibbert) or perimeter threat (Chris Douglas-Roberts, Chase Budinger). For even more kicks and giggles, here’s how the lineup would look with a center:

1. Bassy/Lowry
2. Jaric/Foye/Brewer
3. Gomes/(Beasley/Greene/Gallinari)/Brewer
4. Big Al/Cardinal
5. Darko/(Thabeet/Lopez/Hardin/Hibbert)/Big Al

All in all they would fill out their roster pretty much like they would anyway in the offseason while spending right around $64-69 million over 9 active players (Bassy and Gomes resigned for $3 and $5 respectively), 2 1st rounders, 2 buyouts, and a Chris-Richard-esque minimum salary. Hell, they could even choose to not re-sign Bassy and save $3-4 million (although, I’d be upset if they got rid of the young point). The team’s 2007-08 payroll comes in at $64,428,155. This trade would allow them to keep close to this year’s budget, fill out their frontcourt (which, BTW, is an issue for next year’s squad), add a point guard (and former teammate of Foye’s) and another 1st rounder, and stay under the luxury mark. To tell you the truth, this is my favorite Mega-Deal Monday yet. I was partial to the Ben Wallace/Joakim Noah deal, but this one just seems like it would work for everybody involved. It makes sense and it's a little boring.

The point here is that Ratliff’s contract only matters if it can be turned into picks and contracts for players that the team would have to sign anyway at 60-80% of the cost of players like Darko and Cardinal. This team is going over $60 million in 2008/09 one way or another; whether it’s re-signing the undersized Rhino or extending Bassy and Gomes and picking up a mid-level free agent big man, the money is already spent and…well, I guess they could just let Ratliff’s money expire. I’ve heard that would give them tons of options.

UPDATE: An alert commenter pointed out that the numbers for this trade adding up to $64-69 million simply didn't add up. They don't. Thanks for the reader for pointing out the error in the comments. I had originally drafted the post with a paragraph tying into a series of posts about Portland's rebuilding efforts and their willingness to operate over the cap. For one reason or another, I had left Howard and Hudson's buyouts out of the final calculation. My editorial take vis a vis the content of the final paragraph is that while this deal may have put the Wolves over the luxury cap, it would have fit in line with what I have said on numerous occasions before: a 1 year luxury cap hit due to buyouts is a fair trade off for the long term success of this team if additional draft picks can be procured. Additionally, the main point of Ratliff's money being close to what they will have to spend anyway on Smith + Gomes + additional frontcourt player remains intact. That being said, I should not have made the error. Thanks again to the alert reader for pointing this out.

This one hurts. In order to dull the sting, let's bullet point this bad boy:

• Randy Foye is playing some terrible basketball. While there was much rejoicing when he finally made it back to the hardwood, the payoff has been bad point play and stunted team ball. Last night's 4th quarter was about all you need to see to draw some mighty negative conclusions about Foye's ability to be the 1-guard in the NBA. First, there was the garbage dribbling at the top of the key. Outside of providing him no real advantage or lanes to the basket, he actually had the ball stripped from him with the shot clock running down to zero, forcing him to jack up a no-prayer shot. I wonder what it must be like to defend such a thing; between the legs over and over while the belt buckle remains in the same spot. Whatever works, I suppose.

  A second 4th quarter offense came when Foye had laser eyes for Al Jefferson on the post, passing up a wide-open Marko Jaric, waving his hands just beyond the 3 point line. This was hardly the first missed look; one of the highlights of the night was when Corey Brewer (who seemed to be everywhere on the court) hustled for a nice blocked shot, passed the ball to the point, sprinted ahead of the defense and was promptly rewarded for his efforts by Foye making the alley-oop that sent the packed house into a state of insanity...oh wait, that last part never happened.

  Missed passes, laser-eyes on the post, an inability to drive his man in the lane, basic entries to the post, garbage dribbling, passing around the perimeter...the list goes on and on. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about Foye's performance at the point was that this was the 2nd game that he has taken minutes exclusively from Sebastian Telfair. This worked out alright in the first 3 quarters but when the kitchen got hot, 4th Quarter Foye laid an egg that was absolutely cooked by the Celts. It baffles the mind why he was given as long a leash as he was during the period.

• For the life of me, I will never understand why Randy Wittman called a timeout for the last offensive possession and then ran out a lineup consisting of Big Al, Brewer, Jaric, Telfair, and Craig Smith. Can you tell me where the outside shot is coming with that particular group of players? Why call the timeout? Why not use the speed on the floor to take advantage of a slower Celtic squad in transition? Why not forego a tricky inbounds pass in the half court setting (remember last time)? None of it made any sense, but not making sense makes plenty of sense with Witt's coaching...if you know what I mean. To give Witt the benefit of the doubt, Foye was not on the floor because he a) can't shoot and b) can't run a big-league offense. His other perimeter threat...well, that's another story.
• Defensive rotation is a beautiful thing. It's a sign of b-ball knowledge, maturity, and teamwork. Somewhere along the line (I didn't write down the time in the game...sorry, I was holding a pretzel), Shaddy failed to rotate and the Celts got a highlight reel pass and dunk. Witt immediately called a timeout and came out on the court yelling at McCants for his poor d. Shaddy walked right past him to the bench, ignoring his coach and then annoying his teammates while pleading his case from the pine during the next few possessions. This is the 2nd time in the past few games where Shaddy has clearly FUBAR'd something on the court, been called out for it, and then pitched a hissy fit. You can read about the last snit here. It would have been nice to have McCants in on that last play. He's the club's only legit perimeter threat. He's also the club's only legit head case and the team should pull a lesson from the Utah Jazz and send this clown packing a'la Gordon Giricek. He let the club down again because of his poor play and attitude and there's simply no reason to keep a redundant player (see Foye, Randy) like that around. Maybe Charlotte will take him. I hear they want to reunite the last UNC championship team.
• Corey Brewer and Bassy went a combined 4-18 from the floor with 13 points. Outside of the poor shooting they combined for 2 blocks, 7 assists, 3 steals, 10 boards, and only 3 turnovers. They were the best defensive players on the Wolves side of the ball and they were able to facilitate proficient team play more than their subs: Foye and McCants. In a year where fans were told that youth and player development were the most important products on the court, Bassy and Brewer have shown more development and youth than the squad's hopeful starters. Both Brewer and Bassy are 2 years younger than their counterparts. They have shown development on the court as well as maturity off it. They play team ball and they do not appear to have any ego; precisely the thing you want in your glue guys. Along with Marko, I think it is becoming abundantly clear who the best guards on this team are and who just doesn't get it.

Finally, I have been pimping a Wolves/Bulls trade for quite some time now. You can read the latest breakdown here. One of the things that the Wolves need the most from any big man that would join Big Al in the frontcourt is an ability to make the interior pass. Well, I just found this little ditty on ESPN's rookie tracker:

One of Joakim Noah's best talents is his interior passing ability, but that strength is mostly wasted on this Bulls team. He has consistently made sharp passes to Ben Wallace -- ones that would lead to dunks, and 1's or other easy finishes for most NBA centers -- but they only amount to an occasional Big Ben dunk or, typically, a missed shot.

Exactly. What. The. Club. Needs. At this point the Bulls are tied with the New Jersey Nets for the final playoff spot in the East. That being said, both of those teams suck and they have some massive long-term problems. Let's sweeten up the deal a bit:

To the Bulls
-Ratliff
-Shaddy
-Smith
-Celtic and Heat 1st round picks

To the Wolves
-Ben Wallace
-Joakim Noah

Here's next year's rotation:

1- Telfair/Jaric/Foye
2- Foye/Brewer/Jaric
3- Gomes/(Beasley/Green/Budinger/Gallinari)/Brewer
4- Big Al/Big Ben
5- Noah/Big Ben

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

Alright, that about does it. Until next time.

PS: Check out the new version of ESPN's Trade Machine.

Back in December I wrote something to the effect of the Wolves will be lucky to win a game in February. Outside of games against the Clips and Sixers, it's a tough road to hoe. Well, after a nice .500 10 game run, the schedule gods have become angry and the Wolves are about to embark on a home streak from hell: Houston, Toronto, LA, Philly, San Antonio, Dallas, and Utah. Throw in road games against Cleveland, Toronto, and New Jersey and it's a tough, meaty month of ball.

With 36 games left to play, the Wolves hold the 2nd worst record in the Association. While the record is breathtakingly awful, they are starting to show signs of being a competent and consistent outfit that can be competitive with any and all comers. Most importantly, they are showing signs of life with the young talent that, hopefully, will make up the core of this team for many years to come.

That being said, whether Wolves fans like it or not, the team's ping-pong ball count matters almost as much as player development during this god-awful season. Unfortunately, future non-factor Theo Ratliff is reportedly headed back to the lineup and he, along with fellow future-non-factor (FNF) Antoine Walker figure to see significant minutes after the All Star break, provided hell doesn't freeze over and the Wolves decide that FNF's shouldn't be allowed on or near the court and they are traded (Ratliff) or benched (Toine). Since they seem to be resigned to let Ratliff's contract expire, just how far do the Wolves stand to fall in the upcoming draft?

Here are the teams within close range of the Wolves (wins in parenthesis):

• LA Clippers (14)
• New York (14)
• Memphis (13)
• Seattle (12)

What would it take for the Wolves to climb above these teams? Here's a couple of win scenarios for our beloved Puppies:

• If the Wolves go 18-18 they end up at 28-54.
• If they go 15-21 they end up at 25-57.
• 10-26 nets them 20-62.
• 5-31 leaves them at 15-67.

Looking at the schedule, the most optimistic scenario is 15-21. There is simply no way the Wolves are going to play .500 ball when the schedule is filled with Western Conference opponents in a tight playoff race. Let's cut the team some slack, acknowledge that they have made some improvement and write them up with between 10-15 wins for the remainder of the season. This leaves them with 20-25 wins on the year.

Let's be realistic/slightly optimistic and imagine that the Wolves can play @.300 ball the rest of the year (they're currently playing at a .217 clip). This adds up to about 11 wins. Here's how many wins the Wolves' competition would need to get to 21 wins:

• Clips: 7
• Knicks: 7
• Memphis: 8
• Seattle: 9
• Miami: 12

Teams with 18 wins are completely out of the Wolves range. No team in the NBA is only going to win 3 more games in the season. It's simply out of the question. The worst case scenario for the Wolves is that they fall behind 5 teams and see a club like the Bulls or Philly move up into the top-3 of the draft; pushing the Wolves all the way down to the 7th pick. The best case scenario is that Shaq and D-Wade show some f'ing pride and get their team up to about 25 wins; Corey Maggette pulls through a few games in his contract year; the Knicks pull of a nice trade to rid them of some dead weight; and that Memphis and Seattle's young talent progresses on par with the Wolves' pups. My best guess is that the Wolves will finish with the 3rd worst record in the league, ahead of Miami and Memphis/Seattle. Ideally, the club ends the season with 22-23 wins (without using Ratliff and Toine) and the 3rd worst record. This would mean they would draft no lower than 5th. In other words, the Wolves can continue to improve, win games at a greater pace than they have during the 1st 1/2 of the season, and still end up with a high draft pick that will provide value to the squad. There is no need to panic or be worried about them winning too much. While it would be colossally annoying and maddening if Ratliff and Walker help eek out 2-3 wins, the team will still have a top-7 pick, which is high enough to collect value in the upcoming draft.

Mega Deal Monday:

OK, I'm going to take one more shot at it:

To the Bulls

• Theo Ratliff
• Craig Smith
• Rashad McCants
• 2009 first round considerations; either the Miami pick or the Bulls take the higher of the teams' top picks

To the Wolves

• Joakim Noah
• Ben Wallace

I can't tell you how much sense this trade makes. First of all the Bulls clear Big Ben's awful contract while gaining a talented young (albeit undersized) power forward and a talented young (albeit erratic) shooting guard that could somewhat protect them against the loss of Ben Gordon. It would also clear a whopping $25 million off the books so that they could work with Gordon and Luol Deng while also being major players in a relatively uncontested free agency season (Josh Smith and Emeka Okafor would look nice in red). Hell, the Wolves could throw in both the Miami and Celtic picks to make this work. After all, you can only carry 12 men on the active roster and we have no idea what those picks will bring whereas Noah is a known product. Smith, Shaddy, Ratliff's money, and 2 first rounders should be more than enough to get Noah and Wallace.

From the Wolves point of view, they pick up the perfect big man compliment to Al Jefferson: a big, unselfish, hustling, rebounder who doesn't need set plays to score and be effective. They also get a high-priced backup who will clear the books after the 2009-10 season. This trade would allow them to select a top-flight 3/combo forward in this year's draft. Here is what next year's rotation would look like if this trade were to happen:

1. Foye/Jaric/Buckner
2. Brewer/Foye/Jaric/Buckner
3. Gomes/(Michael Beasley/Danilo Gallinari/Donte Green)/Brewer
4. Big Al/Big Ben
5. Noah/Big Ben

(Note: Ideally, they spend $3-4 mil on Bassy and keep him around.)

Most importantly, the Wolves would have a well-sized and balanced roster; a nice blend between shooters and glue guys. The 1-4 spots would all have a defender and a scorer to put out on the court and the 5 would be anchored by size and defense. You could go big and/or small; you could run or play slow 1/2 court sets...in short, you have the type of balance that makes for a damn-good and competitive team centered on a budding superstar power forward.

Salary-wise the Wolves would be on the books for $64 million across 12 active contracts in 2008-09. They would be over the luxury mark because of the Juwon Howard and Troy Hudson buyouts, but the @ $8 mil spent over $70 mil will be more than made up in the following 2 years. How? After Walker's money comes off the books in 2009, the Wolves will enter the 2009-10 season with @ $61 million spread across 12 contracts (to include the 2009 1st rounder). After that season, they will be able to take Big Ben's money off the books to the tune of $14 million. Not only would the team be stocked with young talent, but they will have enough talent to avoid large free agent gambles; instead building through sensible trades and priced-to-move veteran free agents. Glen's wallet will feel it for a single year, and it will feel it because of bought-out players (not guys on the active roster), but he will save money in the long run and end up with a superior roster/product than he would if they do nothing and let Ratliff's money expire.