I am definitely in the camp that thinks Craig Smith is not a long-term solution on a team centered around Al Jefferson. That's not to say that Craig isn't a fantastic talent though; it's purely a matter of fit. If, however Wolves management thinks keeping Craig around is a better idea than trying to trade him, here's what some other young big men (all 2nd rounders, by the way) got last year:
Free Agency
What's The Rhino Gonna Cost Glen Taylor?
Posted February 8th, 2008 by wdWhat's Gomes Gonna Cost Glen Taylor?
Posted February 7th, 2008 by wdSee the first installment in this mini-series for a look at how much Sebastian Telfair could cost this offseason.
What's Telfair Gonna Cost Glen Taylor?
Posted February 6th, 2008 by wdWith the impending NBA trade deadline and three young players (Telfair, Gomes and Smith) up for restricted free agency, the Timberwolves have some tough decisions to make sooner or later. But what's the ballpark for these guys? What might it take to lock them up? Contingent upon the Timberwolves wanting to, of course.
The real trick will be timing these deals. Whoever gets the first deal will be used as a measuring stick by the other two. In my mind, that's all the more reason to deal one and avoid internal contract jealousy.
Time to Stop
Posted November 14th, 2007 by Stop-n-PopIf the horribly boring NFL can teach us one thing, it is that doing away with guaranteed contracts can help save America’s beautiful game.
Starbury is holding the Knicks hostage for $40+ million over 2 years. Here in Minny, we have an “innocently” frustrated Toine finding himself on the bench of a team in full rebound mode (Green probably won't be far behind). Why is Tubby McThreeball still here? All because of guaranteed money. I’m all for labor relations in day-to-day work places, but this is a perfect example of players’ unions gone wrong.
Here in Minny we have had to deal with the inept Terrell Brandon, T-Hud, and now Walker. The only reason Toine is here is because he can clear salary in future years, not because he adds actual basketball value to the team. The same can be said about almost all of the KG deal: part of the promise is potential cap-space. Mmmmmm...theoretical money. Can I get that on a jersey?
This nonsense has to end and it should do so with Starbury. If there is any value he can finally provide to the NBA it is to prove once and for all that guaranteed NBA contracts should be a thing of the past. He should be fired so he can have more time to hawk his cheap a@@ shoes.
PS: On a completely unrelated note, take a quick gander at Kobe's line vs. Bruce Bowen.
2008 Free Agents
Posted November 12th, 2007 by Stop-n-PopThe Timberpuppies are going to have some coin to spend on a free agent next year. Who is on the market? Let's take a look.
Restricted free agents of note:
- Josh Smith (F- Atlanta)
- Emeka Okafor (F- Charlotte)
- Loul Deng (F- Chicago)
- Ben Gordon (G- Chicago)
- Andre Iguodala (F- Philly)
- Monta Ellis (G- Golden State)
- Josh Childress (G/F- Atlanta)
Unrestricted free agents of note:
- Gilbert Arenas (G- Washington)
- Ron Artest (F- Sacramento)
- Antawn Jameson (F- Washington)
- Corey Magettee (F- LA Clippers)
- Matt Barnes (F- Golden State)
- Chris Duhon (G- Chicago)
Possible entries into free agency:
- Shawn Marion (F- Phoenix)
- Jermaine O'Neal (F- Indiana)
- Baron Davis (G- Golden State)
- Elton Brand (F- LA Clippers)
- Allen Iverson (G- Denver)
Our beloved puppies have two glaring needs: a big man who can play along side of Jefferson and a true point guard. Taking into account signing our own free agents and possible buyouts, the Wolves could have about $9-10 million/year to spend on free agents (this is the most optimistic assessment; it could go higher or lower depending on buyouts, trades, and re-signings). While there has been a lot of talk about the team going gung-ho with youth and cap room, this really isn't a lot of money to throw around; surely it isn't enough to address both main needs with top-notch free agents. This gives the Wolves 3 routes of dealing with 2008 free agency:
- Put all of your eggs in one basket. Throw all of your money at a single free agent and hope for the best in the draft.
- Target 2 middle of the road free agents and hope that the Wolves' front office can identify serviceable NBA talent.
- Hold off on the 2008 class; maybe sign one mid-level guy and wait for the salaries to really clear the board in the 09/10 cycle.
If the team goes with route 1, let's immediately take Marion, O'Neal, Davis, Brand, Iverson, and Arenas off the table. Too much dinero senor. Keep in mind that the Wolves need to buy some folks out to have this money on the table. Walker, Buckner, Jaric, and Madsen are sucking up money that could be spent in this very nice free agent season. If the Wolves do decide to go the one player route, here are the players that are theoretically in their range (with current salary or 2008 qualifying offer "QO" in parentheses):
- Corey Maggette ($7,840,000)
- Josh Smith ($3,167,882 QO)
- Emeka Okafor ($7,082,635 QO)
- Luol Deng ($4,452,574 QO)
- Ben Gordon ($6,404,749 QO)
- Andre Iguodala ($3,800,625 QO)
- Monta Ellis ( $770,610)
- Chris Duhon ($3,248,000)
- Josh Childress ($4,844,355 QO)
As you may notice, there's not really an Al's Big Buddy type of player in this affordable mix. While the free agent class may be deep, it doesn't have an affordable option for inside help unless you want to take a shot at another PF in Okafor. This, however, isn't likely; Okafor and Iguodala will likely ask for (and get) Dwight Howard-esque money: 5 years, $85 million. Sorry, $17 mil/year ain't in our wheel house (nor is the $12-15 that they could "settle" for.) Deng has also turned down a 5 year, $50 million offer from the Bulls. He's likely upwards of $12 million as well. Ditto for Gordon. That leaves us with Maggette, Smith, Childress, Ellis, and Duhon (along with a few other "bargains").
The problem here is that route 2 (target 2 lesser-name free agents) will be prohibitive simply because of the fact there are so many good players on the market and there will be other teams with money to spend. Players like Ellis and Barnes are going to get paid Troy Hudson-esque money. Furthermore, it will be hard to convince 1, let alone 2 players, that they should come play for a team that will be in the basement of the NBA.
That being said, I think your route 1 option is to take a big run at Josh Smith. The guy is young and on the verge of stardom. He's has 20/10/5 kind of potential (he also blocks shots and gets steals). Atlanta will likely match but if you can get rid of some dead weight (cough...Tubby McThreeball...cough) you may be able to overpay enough where Atlanta will balk at signing a relatively unproven talent. Granted, this guy is neither a point or an Al's Big Buddy, but he's good enough to take your chances. You then move on and hope for either a point or a big man in the draft. Mark my words: Josh Smith will be the long term star of this free agent class.
If you roll with option 2/3, I think you take your shot with Chris Duhon at the point and...well, option 1 seems pretty good about now. Duhon is serviceable from behind the line and averages nearly 5 apg in 26 minutes. However, he likely isn't a significant upgrade over any guard currently on the roster and he doesn't bring a lot of value.
More to follow.
UPDATE: Cap methodology is listed in the comments. I figured 2 out of 4 vet contract buyouts/trades and 2 out of 5 expiring contract resignings.
UPDATE ii: I should have been clearer in the post, but these scenarios are dealing with if the Wolves become free agent players this year; not whether or not they should. I'll get to the should question in a later post; as well as another post that breaks down further free agency options for this year (BTW: I think wd has an outstanding breakdown of realistic free agency options here). If they go for a free agent this year, they will have to clear some cap space with buy outs and not extend contract offers to a large chunk of their younger players (Green, Telfair, Smith, Richard, and Gomes all have to be considered as possible non-signings.)



