Last night’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks was one of those games that forces folks to drop one of the most cartoonish clichés in all of sports: moral victory. I’m all for players feeling good about their efforts, so I’m not completely opposed to this term, but I am opposed to its incorrect use. Last night was not a moral victory. Last night was an inverted loss.
Typically, the Wolves come out with high energy; they match the opposing squad for a quarter, maybe even outscoring them in the 2nd to take a half time lead before falling behind in the 3rd and getting blown out in the 4th. Last night, the Wolves got blown out in the first, found themselves even further behind in the 2nd, rallied in the 3rd, and played the Mavs even in the 4th.
Beyond the inversion, typical Wolves problems were on full display: massive free throw disparity, out of position players, McCants being unable to play nice with any of his teammates, a lack of frontcourt depth (on a good note, Craig Smith is starting to play like his nickname again), and so on and so forth. Just because the Wolves faltered where they usually prosper (and vice versa), does not mean they had a noble moral victory. Quite the opposite; this was more of the same from the Wolves….it was just inverted.
Looking at the game flow from last night’s game, you can really see that Wittman was struggling to find a line up that worked in the 2nd half. After subbing Brewer and Walker for Gomes and Madsen, the Wolves went on a nice 23-9 run to (nearly) end the quarter. Telfair and Smith were added to the mix late in the 3rd and the Wolves went hodge-podge from about 9 minutes left in the game.
One thing that was particularly noticeable about last night’s 3rd and 4th quarters was the defensive pressure put on by Brewer and Telfair when the were on the court together. Looking at the five-man floor unit stats, Brewer and Telfair have been on the court together for 44 minutes with an overall +1. Nothing to write home about, but you could see an increase in defensive intensity when the 2 were allowed to harass Mavs, especially around the perimeter. Please, please, please give Brewer some playing time at the 2.
For all the garbage I talk about Shad, I kind of felt bad for him last night in the 2nd half. I don’t know why, but it appears that I’m not the only one who noticed that he changed his game up a little after the break. Britt Robson has a much better take on this matter than I could…being that I would bench Shad if given the keys to the car.
Getting back to the inversion thing for a moment: the reason why this game should not be thought of as a moral victory is because it is simply a backwards example of the type of game that is emblematic of the Wolves’ failures. The Wolves are almost always incapable of putting forth a solid effort for 48 minutes. Whether for lack of talent, poor execution, or poor coaching, the Wolves are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency (points scored and given during 100 possessions). They turn the ball over far too many times per 100 possessions, and even though they have a respectable effective FG%, it is undone by their inexcusable inability to get to the line.
On defense, things get even worse. (Actually, this year’s club is better defensively than last year’s KG squad if you can believe it.) The Wolves give up nearly 112 points/100 possessions to their opponents (while scoring only 103). They allow their opponents to have an effective FG% over 50%. They force a fair amount of turnovers and they do a decent job on the defensive glass, but once again, they get done in by the combined FG/FT number: allowing a league worst 32.8 FT made for every 100 opponent possessions.
To give you a sense of just how far off the Wolves are from the league’s elite squads, the Dallas Mavericks lead the league in offensive efficiency with 114 points/100 possessions (vs. the Wolves 103). The Mavs convert 28.8 FT/100 FG during this span compared to the Wolves’ lowly 17.8. Even though the Wolves out offensive rebound the Mavs, this advantage is thrown to the wind by the Wolves’ inability to a) put the ball immediately back in the hoop or b) get to the line.
On the defensive end, the team to beat is the Boston Celtics. The Celts allow a league low 98.2 points/100 possessions. They hold their opponents to a ridiculously low 45.4% effective shooting percentage. They force a bucket-load of turnovers and limit their opponents’ offensive rebounding numbers. Where the Celts fall flat (and where they will end up getting in a lot of trouble down the stretch) is that they allow a terrible 27.2 FT per 100 FG. If someone gets into the lane (cough…Dwight Howard…cough...LeBron...cough), the Celts have trouble defending.
Anyway, you can get a sense of just how far behind the Wolves are when it comes to effectiveness over extended periods of game time. Last night’s loss was no exception; even if it was backwards from what we are used to seeing.
In order for the Wolves to turn this thing around, they need to find a way to correct the free throw disparity. It is absolutely killing them at both ends of the court. Last night the Wolves were out shot at the line 32-39 to 20-28. Overall, the Wolves are being out-gunned at the line by 329-416 to 194-270. That works out to opponents averaging 32 FT attempts per game vs the Wolves’ 21. Taking into account the Wolves' opponent FT% of .791, that works out to a built-in 8.7 point buffer between the Wolves and their opponents. This nearly-9-point-spread is exactly enough to address the 9 point gap between the Wolves’ offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. There is no other stat in the same ballpark of explaining why the Wolves are losing.
Speaking of ballparks, how about the Twinkies and their latest trade. I’m all for it. The Twins need bats and if they can get a front-line starting pitching prospect back for Santana (or Nathan), then this deal looks even better. I think the Twins will end up with a better record next year than they did this past year. Of course, I don’t know all that much about baseball as I never could hit the damn ball. So disregard anything I write about the Twinkies and head over to Aaron Gleeman’s site for some real baseball knowledge.
