With each team in the NBA having no more than three games remaining and the tanking talk hotter than ever, I thought it might be valuable to lay out the potential scenarios presented to the ping-pong ball chasers. For an explanation of how the lottery works see here. As of Saturday morning, April 12th the standings look thusly:

I show the top six because after running "best" and "worst" scenarios Milwaukee always stayed in 7th (in this post best and worst use the Wolves' lottery odds as a frame of reference). So even if the Clippers win their last three (all on the road, no less) and the Bucks lose their last three, the Bucks will still be 7th in the lottery rankings.

Against the Lakers no less. The Wolves now have the 3rd worst record in the league.

Tonight seems most appropriate to talk about the Memphis Grizzlies. While the Wolves are down to their record equals at the half, these two teams are in fairly similar situations having both recently traded their franchise big men. Sadly for fans in the Volunteer State, the Grizz have been in a pseudo-rebuilding mode for the last few years, only to fully commit mid-way through this season. While things haven't gone very well in Marc Iavaroni's first year away from Phoenix, they have a solid core with which to create a contender down the road.

In his most recent post, fellow Canis Hoopus contributor Finewein wrote this:

My colleague Stop and Pop has been crunching stats and scouting college ballers for a couple of months now, and has come up with some fascinating suggestions on how to improve the club. Here's where I'll part company a bit, because as long as the Iron Ranger is running this team, I think that that effort leads to crushing disappointment. As the newly appointed Minister of Hindsight, if we had drafted Josh Howard, Danny Granger and Joakim Noah, along with keeping Brandon Roy, would Kevin Garnett still be on this club? McHale has gone his own way in the draft, mostly because he still believes his basketball IQ is better than anyone else's. Whatever anyone else would come up with is speculative at best.

In the grand tradition of continuing to build up for a big disappointment, for several months now I have been hitting on the point (to great extent) that the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff is the single most important movable asset the Timberwolves have to use in their rebuilding efforts and that it must be traded for things like additional salary and draft picks. Unfortunately, letting the deal expire has become a talking point of sorts among local sports writers/personalities. From Paul Allen to Mike Max to Mark Rosen to Sid, it is widely believed that Ratliff’s expiring contract allows the club additional space to rebuild. Here’s a particularly good example of this phenomenon from Steven Litel:

The 2007-08 season was lost for the Timberwolves weeks, if not months, ago, but Ratliff will now be able to fulfill his ultimate role for this team. His presence in the locker room is a steadying force and a lesson in professionalism. While teaching the young Wolves almost through osmosis, Ratliff will play out this evaluation year and suit up for another team in 2008-09. The cap room from his expiring contract will give Minnesota more choices than they are used to possessing.

No, no, no, no, no, and more no. There are no additional choices. There are no more options. The only thing Ratliff’s expiring contract does is save Glen Taylor’s wallet. There is nothing wrong with this fact; after all, Mr. Taylor has shown in the past that he is willing to operate above the luxury threshold. What is frustrating about all of this is that I have yet to see a single sports news outlet in Minnesota actually cite the facts: regardless of Ratliff’s money, the Wolves will enter the 2008/09 season with nearly $55 million in contracts spread out over 8 active players, a top 1st round draft pick, and 2 bought out contracts (Juwan Howard and Troy Hudson…yes, the team will still be paying these castoffs). The cap is projected at $58 million. With no big deal allowing them to operate over the cap (cough…Ratliff’s money…cough), exactly how will the Wolves have more choices?

Zero. Damn. Sense.

I’ve been running a feature on the site called Mega-Deal Mondays. You can read them here and here. Aside from being a small way to dull the pain in a 10-win season, the posts are just small examples that show the importance of being able to operate above the cap a’la Portland so that the team can gather enough assets to maximize their chances in the draft. Ratliff’s deal only provides options if it is converted into young players/draft picks + additional salary that will expire over the next 2 years…which is when the Wolves will finally be able to operate efficiently and have options in free agency. Just for old times sake, here’s the final pre-draft deadline Mega-Deal Monday of the year:

To the Grizz:

• Theo Ratliff
• Rashad McCants
• 1 or 2 of the Wolves' 2nd round picks in this year’s draft

To the Wolves:

• Darko Milicic
• Brian Cardinal
• Kyle Lowry
• Memphis’ 1st round pick-preferably their own, but Lakers pick will do; perhaps package the Heat and Celtic picks as well to get the Grizz's top pick

Why this works? Memphis gets to clear a ton of salary in their ongoing fire sale, including the horrible Cardinal contract. They get a young shooting guard that fits in the up-tempo style that the team is going for with Mike Conley and Rudy Gay. They get rid of one of their many point guards and…did I mention that they’ll clear about $22 million off the books next year if this deal were to be made?

For the Wolves, they get rid of one of the McCants/Foye biumvirate. They take on decent sized contracts in Darko and Cardinal, but this just allows them to stop pretending that Craig Smith wasn’t going to cost them upwards of $3 million/year or that they wouldn’t have to sign another frontcourt player to a mid-level type contract just to fill out the 2008/09 roster. Let Smith go, forget bringing on another frontcourt body in the off-season, let Foye try the 2 with Marko Jaric and Corey Brewer, and enjoy the additional 1st rounder. Oh yeah, they get another point, which would allow them to focus on the 3 and 5 in this year’s draft.

Folks, no matter what happens, Ratliff’s money is already out the door. The Wolves will not, I repeat, will not be players in any sort of free agent market until, at the very least, after the 2009/10 season. Just for kicks and giggles, here’s how this deal would affect the 2008/09 roster:

1. Bassy/Lowry
2. Jaric/Foye/Brewer
3. Gomes/(Beasley/Greene/Gallinari)/Brewer
4. Big Al/Cardinal
5. Darko/Big Al

The Wolves could then use the additional 1st rounder to target a center (Hasheem Thabeet, Brook Lopez, Devon Hardin, Roy Hibbert) or perimeter threat (Chris Douglas-Roberts, Chase Budinger). For even more kicks and giggles, here’s how the lineup would look with a center:

1. Bassy/Lowry
2. Jaric/Foye/Brewer
3. Gomes/(Beasley/Greene/Gallinari)/Brewer
4. Big Al/Cardinal
5. Darko/(Thabeet/Lopez/Hardin/Hibbert)/Big Al

All in all they would fill out their roster pretty much like they would anyway in the offseason while spending right around $64-69 million over 9 active players (Bassy and Gomes resigned for $3 and $5 respectively), 2 1st rounders, 2 buyouts, and a Chris-Richard-esque minimum salary. Hell, they could even choose to not re-sign Bassy and save $3-4 million (although, I’d be upset if they got rid of the young point). The team’s 2007-08 payroll comes in at $64,428,155. This trade would allow them to keep close to this year’s budget, fill out their frontcourt (which, BTW, is an issue for next year’s squad), add a point guard (and former teammate of Foye’s) and another 1st rounder, and stay under the luxury mark. To tell you the truth, this is my favorite Mega-Deal Monday yet. I was partial to the Ben Wallace/Joakim Noah deal, but this one just seems like it would work for everybody involved. It makes sense and it's a little boring.

The point here is that Ratliff’s contract only matters if it can be turned into picks and contracts for players that the team would have to sign anyway at 60-80% of the cost of players like Darko and Cardinal. This team is going over $60 million in 2008/09 one way or another; whether it’s re-signing the undersized Rhino or extending Bassy and Gomes and picking up a mid-level free agent big man, the money is already spent and…well, I guess they could just let Ratliff’s money expire. I’ve heard that would give them tons of options.

UPDATE: An alert commenter pointed out that the numbers for this trade adding up to $64-69 million simply didn't add up. They don't. Thanks for the reader for pointing out the error in the comments. I had originally drafted the post with a paragraph tying into a series of posts about Portland's rebuilding efforts and their willingness to operate over the cap. For one reason or another, I had left Howard and Hudson's buyouts out of the final calculation. My editorial take vis a vis the content of the final paragraph is that while this deal may have put the Wolves over the luxury cap, it would have fit in line with what I have said on numerous occasions before: a 1 year luxury cap hit due to buyouts is a fair trade off for the long term success of this team if additional draft picks can be procured. Additionally, the main point of Ratliff's money being close to what they will have to spend anyway on Smith + Gomes + additional frontcourt player remains intact. That being said, I should not have made the error. Thanks again to the alert reader for pointing this out.