With each team in the NBA having no more than three games remaining and the tanking talk hotter than ever, I thought it might be valuable to lay out the potential scenarios presented to the ping-pong ball chasers. For an explanation of how the lottery works see here. As of Saturday morning, April 12th the standings look thusly:

I show the top six because after running "best" and "worst" scenarios Milwaukee always stayed in 7th (in this post best and worst use the Wolves' lottery odds as a frame of reference). So even if the Clippers win their last three (all on the road, no less) and the Bucks lose their last three, the Bucks will still be 7th in the lottery rankings.

Since my slightly-anticipated series on Building a Winning Basketball Team fell through, I thought I'd take a rundown of the Wolves' fellow basement-dwellers. The worst five teams in the league right now are Miami, Minnesota, Seattle, Memphis and New York. While the Wolves, Sonics and Grizzlies are all in obvious and expected rebuilding efforts, the Heat had no idea they'd be this bad this year and the Knicks are, well... the Knicks.

Thanks to the omnipresence of the NBA scheduling gods, the newly retooled Miami Heat were on national TV this past weekend. It’s not often the worst team in the league gets the featured slot on Sunday afternoon, but hey…it’s the NBA.

After getting my first good look at the South Florida Timberwolves, I’m pretty optimistic that the recent Shaq-fu mega deal will work out gang-busters for our Beloved Puppies.

With Shawn Marion on the squad, the Heat are on the hook for roughly $50.6 million spread out over 6 active contracts in 2008-09. Adding in their 1st round pick (aprox $3 mil) and Dorell Wright ($2.5 mil), they’re already over $56 mil with only 8 active contracts. While it would be mildly entertaining to see an NBA squad try to make it through the season on the cheap, we here at Canis Hoopus don’t think the Heat will give it a go. The Heat are simply not in a position to max out a player like Elton Brand or Emeka Okafor this off-season. We’re talking $15 million + for both of these players. The Heat may have some room but they don’t have that kind of coin; especially considering that they would still need to sign 3 additional players above the luxury mark.

In their ever-continuing effort to remain 1 year behind the Wolves, the Heat are entering a rebuilding year with a cornerstone player (Dwayne Wade), big contract (Marion), a high draft pick, and a bunch of nothing. They’re not so far under the cap that they can go out and get a big name player and they’re hard up enough for bodies that they can’t afford to waste mid-level and rookie exceptions.

The Heat are in a tremendous pickle. I may be one of the few people who didn’t think that they made out like bandits with the Shaq trade. Shawn Marion is an exceptionally well-compensated player and the Heat took on a horribly bad Marcus Banks contract…which they can add to the Mark Blount deal. They need a point, a center, and bodies to come off the bench. Right now, they’re looking at the following lineup next year:

1. Marcus Banks/(empty)
2. Dwayne Wade/Daequan Cook
3. Shawn Marion/(empty)
4. Udonis Haslem/(empty)
5. Mark Blount/(empty)

Bench: (empty).

That’s it folks. That’s all they have locked up. Marion gave them a more functional player than Shaq but he only took $3 mil off the books. Let’s say that the Heat select a point (Derrick Rose would be a good fit for them); they still have to fill out the roster with no 2nd round pick (which they owe to the Wolves) and little money to operate before they hit the cap.

With all of this in mind, while the Heat should be improved next year, I can’t say that they will be much improved. They have just as many holes as the Wolves, a thin roster with $56 million in salary, only 1 draft pick in 08, and Pat Riley calling the shots. Performance-wise, and at this point in his career, Marion may not be as far beyond Shaq as it may seem at first glance; while his win/loss shares blow Shaq’s out of the water, he’s only averaging 15/2/10. He also won’t have Steve Nash dishing him the ball (or Amare drawing double teams). It will be interesting to see how much the Heat improve over the last 35 games of the year. If they don’t play .350-.450 ball, it doesn’t speak well of their chances in 2008-09.

All of this being written, the Wolves should have an excellent shot at getting the Heat’s #1 2009 pick in a pretty fair position as the Heat still play in the woeful Eastern Conference and they should find a way to make it above the 10 worst teams in the league in the 2008/09 season. Wade should be healthy, Marion will be in a contract year, and they will likely have a top-5 pick. That should be worth at least 30 wins, right? Stop-n-Pop prediction: The Heat will finish at 33-49, 11th in the NBA—giving the Wolves the 11th pick in the draft.

My wife used to work as a nurse in the Alzheimer’s wing of a nursing home in Bloomington. It was a tough place to work; between brief moments of the patients’ heart breaking clarity and the inability of families to come to grips with the fact that their loved ones were no longer…well, there, it was a complete bummer. Surprisingly, this sad situation was able to be used as an amazingly life-affirming reminder: whenever I would get down about this, that, or the other, my wife would remind me that it could always be worse…I could be wasting away in the Alzheimer’s wing. It’s kind of a sick way of getting psyched up about things, but it is a silver lining when you’re down in the dumps. And so goes our beloved Puppies and the Miami Heat.

As bad as things get this year—and they’re insanely bad—at least the future of our favorite ball club has enough hope and promise to make it out of the NBA’s terminal care unit. Not so much for the unit from south Florida.

First, the Heat have $50 million of guaranteed money locked up in 4 players for the next 2 seasons. The cap projection in the next 2 years is $58 million and $60 million, while the luxury numbers come in at roughly $70 and $72 million respectively. This wouldn’t be such a bad thing if the 4 players were Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and Boris Diaw (hell, make it Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Jameer Nelson or Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Deron Williams). It is a bad thing when you’re talking about Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade, Mark Blount, and Udonis Haslem.

Let’s start with Shaq. What do these names have in common: Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, Al Jefferson, Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum, Andris Biedrins, Brendan Haywood, Tyson Chandler, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby? Those are starting NBA centers who have a higher PER than does Shaq-daddy while playing at least the same amount of minutes/game. As even lesser centers like Joel Pryzbilla know, Shaq is no longer a two-man defensive task and he can no longer control the lane on the other end of the court. O’Neal is owed $20 million for 2 more years. Look for each and every single one of his numbers to decline with every game that passes.

D-Wade is still one of the most exciting players in the league, but with recent news that his shoulder injury was a lot worse than was first let on, and with a 3PT% of 15% (career mark of 24%), Wade’s long-term durability cannot possibly be counted on. The man lives and dies by his ability to get in the lane and either get fouled or make short shots. He’s a terrible defender and he can’t run the point. While his offense still marks him as the premier 2 in the East, he should increasingly be viewed as a 1 dimensional player on a team with few options and rapidly declining dimensions.

Haslem is deceptively below average. According to Hollinger’s Player Stats page, Haslem is the 37th ranked 4 in the league; ranking between Drew Gooden and Josh Boone. Adjusted for minutes played, Haslem ranks (PER) behind KG, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh, Josh Smith, Shawn Marion, Antawn Jamison, David West, Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Zach Randolph, Emeka Okafor, Rasheed Wallace, Rashard Lewis, Lamar Odom, and Gooden as 4’s who play 30 minutes/game. As a block player with an eFG of 47% it’s not as if Haslem is giving you a sure shot in the front court, and he’s averaging slightly more TO/game than APG. He’s a nice player who eats up a ton of minutes on a crappy team, but is he $7 million/year nice? Probably not.

The remaining member of the 4-man $50 million club is…wait for it…Mark Blount. The less said about the man, the better; but it is worth taking note that with Blount, his trade exception, Ricky Davis, and the upcoming 1st round pick, the Miami Heat are quickly becoming the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Timberwolves’ Boston Celtics…if that makes any sense at all.

Not only are we sending the Heat our worst players, but we are receiving ridiculously one-sided draft compensation in return. The Heat aren’t going to make the playoffs this year. They will be just as bad next year when O’Neal is even less effective and Wade more banged up. The year after that they will be…you guessed it, just as bad as the 2 years before because….you guessed it, O’Neal is older and Wade is more banged up. Meanwhile, they’ve screwed themselves on the cap and they have to hope and pray for salvation in the draft…which they’ve FUBAR’d by giving away a future 1st rounder to the Wolves. In other words, the Heat have become last year’s Wolves: a dying team with an aging superstar and garbage. And yes, I’m calling Shaq garbage.

Remember: as bad as it gets, at least it’s not as bad as the Heat.