As mentioned in yesterday’s post, one of the biggest obstacles the Wolves have to overcome on their way to winning is a massive free throw disparity. The Wolves give up 32 FTA/game which, if you consider in the Wolves' 21 FTA/game and their opponent's 80% FT%, results in a built in 9-point disadvantage for the puppies. It’s pretty hard to win games when you’re giving away this many points.
My gut reaction to the Wolves’ FT disparity is that Randy Foye’s absence may have a lot to do with the Wolves being unable to get to the line. Foye is one of the few Wolves who can create his own shot by getting into the lane and drawing contact. Is this hunch correct? Does Foye’s absence have a lot to do with the Wolves not getting to the line? Let’s take a quick look at Foye’s stats:
As a rookie, Foye got to the line 2.34 times per game. Of course, per game stats are not the way to judge effectiveness, especially with rookies. If you adjust his stats for game minutes, Foye makes roughly 4.1 FTA/40 minutes. During his senior year at Villanova, Foye got to the line 6 times/40 minutes. While Foye simply doesn’t have a large enough resume to dig too much deeper into his FTA impact (to say nothing of the small sample size of backup Wolves guards this year), it can reasonably be assumed that the Wolves are losing 4-6 FTA/40 minutes by not having Foye in the lineup. If you take into consideration Marko Jaric's 3.35 FTA/40, we’re talking about a net loss of 1-3 FTA/40 minutes. All in all, Foye’s absence hurts a little bit, but the Wolves are getting blown out by such a large amount at the line that even a nice contact player like Foye doesn’t make that big of a difference. To give you an idea of where Foye lies in the scheme of FTA, last year Kobe Bryant led the league with 9.77 FTA/40 minutes. KG led the Wolves with roughly 6.6 FTA/40 minutes. If Foye could get in the lane to the tune of Ben Gordon (447 FTA; 6.5/40 in 06/07) or Chauncey Billups (440 FTA; 6.9/40 in 06/07), he would be a vast improvement over anyone currently on the Wolves' roster.
To give you an idea of just how strapped the Wolves are for players that can get to the line, the only other player they had in the top 100 FTA during the 06/07 season was Ricky Davis (285 FTA). Al Jefferson, then a Celtic, logged in with 295 FTA. Once you take away KG’s 498 FTAs….well, the puppies are screwed. (In case you are wondering, Big Al averaged 3.46 FTA/40 minutes last year.)
Cutting to the chase, the Wolves have lost their only 3 legitimate free throw threats from the 06/07 season. KG and RD are gone via trade and Foye is still aching on the bench. While Davis’ 285 FTAs have been replaced by Jefferson’s 295, that equation still leaves us with a –488 FTA disparity since KG left for greener pastures. Yikes.
This is the single biggest drop off between last year’s team and this year’s squad. If you take out the massive discrepancy in FTA, this year’s Wolves are more effective on the defensive end than they were during KG’s last year. The 07/08 Wolves are giving up nearly 9 points per game at the line and it is killing them. If the Wolves played the FTA game even, they would have a nearly identical offensive/defensive efficiency rating. Last year, with KG’s nearly 500 FTAs on the books, the Wolves had a defensive efficiency rating of 108. This year, they are at 112 while giving away 9 points/game at the line.
Since I’m on the subject of KG, it should also be noted that while the Celts are having a fantastic defensive year, it could be a mirage as they are near the bottom of the league in FT/100 FG. In other words, the Celts give up a lot of free throws and if their offensive pace slows down just a little more than its current rate (as it did vs. Cleveland and Orlando) and their opponent has a player that can get to the line (LeBron James went 14-15; Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis combined for 18-30 in the Celts' 2 losses), their defense struggles. Luckily for them, they play the Knicks, 76ers, Miami, Charlotte, and Chicago for nearly a quarter of their games.
Getting back on track, the Wolves need to seriously think about FTA when making their top selection in next year’s draft. It should be one of the main considerations if 2 players with similar stats fall in their laps (OJ Mayo vs. Derrick Rose; Roy Hibbert vs. Deandre Jordan; etc). As far as the Wolves are concerned, free throws are the most important of the four factors as it has a trickle down effect on both their offense and defense.
As a parting tidbit, Derrick Rose is getting to the line at a clip of 10 FTA/40 minutes. Michael Beasley is averaging 9.41 FTA/40 minutes. In his junior year, Roy Hibbert got to the line 6.27 times/40 minutes. Freshman Deandre Jordan is averaging 6.62 FTA/40 minutes. If the Wolves are going to field a competitive team, increasing their free throw attempts is the most important statistical need they have to address.