trades

Manu'd

What a day for the home team.

First off, the Wolves pulled a Darryl Dawkins and sent Gerald Green's shoes a'packin' to Houston for the slightly larger expiring contract of Kirk Snyder and a 2nd round pick in 2010. Ho-um. Secondly, The Wolves held on to the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff, apparently in an attempt to see how Al Jefferson would play with a shot-blocker:

"If you say it fits beautifully, then it becomes a major, major priority," said Kevin McHale, Wolves vice president of basketball operations. "If you decide it's not a monumental change, then you say, 'OK, there are a lot of teams who are very successful who don't have that shot-blocker in the middle.' It's going to be a chance for us to see what impact that particular type of player has on our team."

Ah yes, because when it comes down to it, most teams don't really know if it's a major priority to have a big guy who can play defense opposite of a defensively-challenged power forward. Your Minnesota Timberwolves front office, ladies and gentlemen: where nonsense happens.

Compounding the day's lack of $11 million expiring contracts being moved, the Bulls made one of the most curious trades in recent memory: sending Ben Wallace and Joe Smith to the Cavs for Larry Hugues and Drew Gooden (and filler). Really? That was the price for Big Ben? The worst contract in the league for the second worst one and Drew frickin' Gooden? Wow. Did the Bulls get as much back from the Cavs as they could have received from the Wolves for Theo Ratliff, Rashad McCants, Craig Smith, and a 2009 1st rounder for Big Ben and Joakim Noah? Did the Wolves even attempt to make a call to work out a deal that could have included anyone from Andres Nocioni to Chris Duhon? Who knows? What I do know is that Chicago handed away Wallace for absolute garbage. They hated the guy and wanted him gone. The Wolves could have offered a better package in an attempt to get exactly the type of player they need on the squad: a hustling, rebounding, interior passing big man who doesn't need to have plays run for him to be effective. You know, Joakim Noah.

Back to the action.

The Wolves have played 2 solid, entertaining, and worthwhile games in a row by passing (51 assists), rebounding (79), not turning the ball over a ton (27), and shooting 50% (81-162) from the floor. What did our Beloved Puppies in with San Antonio? (22-26) vs. (12-17) from the line. That's it. The Wolves outshot the Spurs, tied them in turnovers, were slightly out-rebounded, and absolutely destroyed at the line. Outside of Big Al and Shaddy, this team has nobody who can get to the line on a regular basis. Earlier in the year I wrote about the possibility of Randy Foye getting 3-4 additional FTA/game but he hasn't yet shown the ability to get to the stripe like he did in his rookie season. Free throws, free throws, free throws. It's killed them all year long.

Speaking of Foye, it's officially time to retire the Fourth Quarter Foye nonsense. When it comes to getting r' done in the last period, Randy is not the droid you are looking for. I realize that this little moniker came about in the era of KG's 4th quarter struggles, but it's time to hand over the big-time shots and expectations to Big Al. Foye spent the 4th quarter against the Spurs getting torched by a real 4th quarter threat: Manu Ginobili. Take a look at Manu's clutch stats at 82Games. Now take a look at Foye's 2006-07 clutch numbers. No. Comparison.

On last 2 Wolves possessions, instead of having Sebastian Telfair bring the ball up the court and enter it into Big Al (which had been a solid combo all night long), 4th Quarter Foye dribbled into impossible shots and either missed a wide-open pass on the pick-and-roll or was forced to kick it out to the poor-shooting Bassy. Had the right player had the ball in his hands, I feel quite confident in saying that Bassy would have either converted the pick-and-roll or...get this...kicked it back out to Foye for the potential game winning three pointer. Instead, Randy Wittman allowed the team's final 2 offensive possession to be dictated more by the marketing department than by actual conditions on the court.

Oh well, at least he didn't run out a Brewer, Gomes, Bassy, Jaric, Big Al lineup when a 3 pointer was needed.

All-in-all, it was a frustrating day for being a Wolves fan. They had San Antonio beat and they lost because they stopped doing what kept them in the game in the first place: good ball movement combined with Big Al's offense. They got rid of Gerald Green but failed to move their biggest asset while teams like Chicago clearly showed that Theo's contract had some return value. All I can hope for is that the team starts to learn from their mistakes. Bassy should be the point from start to finish and Foye should be the one waiting out on the 3 point line for the kickout. The front office should...well, I'll start taking Finewein's advice: I'm not going to get worked up about that anymore as it's never, ever going to make any sense.


Just a Thought

League’s premier major market West Coast team acquiring star big man from bottom-dwelling small market East Coast team by using another team’s assistant coach as a trading chip because of absurd collective bargaining rules = OK!!!

Former league finalist acquiring talented big-name point by using a retired player as a trade asset because of absurd collective bargaining rules = OK!!!

Bottom dwelling mid-market team being able to trade large contracts of veterans-who-never-play for draft picks because of absurd collective bargaining rules = NOT OK!!!

The NBA: where absurdity happens.


Just Another Game

This one hurts. In order to dull the sting, let's bullet point this bad boy:

  • Randy Foye is playing some terrible basketball. While there was much rejoicing when he finally made it back to the hardwood, the payoff has been bad point play and stunted team ball. Last night's 4th quarter was about all you need to see to draw some mighty negative conclusions about Foye's ability to be the 1-guard in the NBA. First, there was the garbage dribbling at the top of the key. Outside of providing him no real advantage or lanes to the basket, he actually had the ball stripped from him with the shot clock running down to zero, forcing him to jack up a no-prayer shot. I wonder what it must be like to defend such a thing; between the legs over and over while the belt buckle remains in the same spot. Whatever works, I suppose.

    A second 4th quarter offense came when Foye had laser eyes for Al Jefferson on the post, passing up a wide-open Marko Jaric, waving his hands just beyond the 3 point line. This was hardly the first missed look; one of the highlights of the night was when Corey Brewer (who seemed to be everywhere on the court) hustled for a nice blocked shot, passed the ball to the point, sprinted ahead of the defense and was promptly rewarded for his efforts by Foye making the alley-oop that sent the packed house into a state of insanity...oh wait, that last part never happened.

    Missed passes, laser-eyes on the post, an inability to drive his man in the lane, basic entries to the post, garbage dribbling, passing around the perimeter...the list goes on and on. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about Foye's performance at the point was that this was the 2nd game that he has taken minutes exclusively from Sebastian Telfair. This worked out alright in the first 3 quarters but when the kitchen got hot, 4th Quarter Foye laid an egg that was absolutely cooked by the Celts. It baffles the mind why he was given as long a leash as he was during the period.

  • For the life of me, I will never understand why Randy Wittman called a timeout for the last offensive possession and then ran out a lineup consisting of Big Al, Brewer, Jaric, Telfair, and Craig Smith. Can you tell me where the outside shot is coming with that particular group of players? Why call the timeout? Why not use the speed on the floor to take advantage of a slower Celtic squad in transition? Why not forego a tricky inbounds pass in the half court setting (remember last time)? None of it made any sense, but not making sense makes plenty of sense with Witt's coaching...if you know what I mean. To give Witt the benefit of the doubt, Foye was not on the floor because he a) can't shoot and b) can't run a big-league offense. His other perimeter threat...well, that's another story.
  • Defensive rotation is a beautiful thing. It's a sign of b-ball knowledge, maturity, and teamwork. Somewhere along the line (I didn't write down the time in the game...sorry, I was holding a pretzel), Shaddy failed to rotate and the Celts got a highlight reel pass and dunk. Witt immediately called a timeout and came out on the court yelling at McCants for his poor d. Shaddy walked right past him to the bench, ignoring his coach and then annoying his teammates while pleading his case from the pine during the next few possessions. This is the 2nd time in the past few games where Shaddy has clearly FUBAR'd something on the court, been called out for it, and then pitched a hissy fit. You can read about the last snit here. It would have been nice to have McCants in on that last play. He's the club's only legit perimeter threat. He's also the club's only legit head case and the team should pull a lesson from the Utah Jazz and send this clown packing a'la Gordon Giricek. He let the club down again because of his poor play and attitude and there's simply no reason to keep a redundant player (see Foye, Randy) like that around. Maybe Charlotte will take him. I hear they want to reunite the last UNC championship team.
  • Corey Brewer and Bassy went a combined 4-18 from the floor with 13 points. Outside of the poor shooting they combined for 2 blocks, 7 assists, 3 steals, 10 boards, and only 3 turnovers. They were the best defensive players on the Wolves side of the ball and they were able to facilitate proficient team play more than their subs: Foye and McCants. In a year where fans were told that youth and player development were the most important products on the court, Bassy and Brewer have shown more development and youth than the squad's hopeful starters. Both Brewer and Bassy are 2 years younger than their counterparts. They have shown development on the court as well as maturity off it. They play team ball and they do not appear to have any ego; precisely the thing you want in your glue guys. Along with Marko, I think it is becoming abundantly clear who the best guards on this team are and who just doesn't get it.

Finally, I have been pimping a Wolves/Bulls trade for quite some time now. You can read the latest breakdown here. One of the things that the Wolves need the most from any big man that would join Big Al in the frontcourt is an ability to make the interior pass. Well, I just found this little ditty on ESPN's rookie tracker:

One of Joakim Noah's best talents is his interior passing ability, but that strength is mostly wasted on this Bulls team. He has consistently made sharp passes to Ben Wallace -- ones that would lead to dunks, and 1's or other easy finishes for most NBA centers -- but they only amount to an occasional Big Ben dunk or, typically, a missed shot.

Exactly. What. The. Club. Needs. At this point the Bulls are tied with the New Jersey Nets for the final playoff spot in the East. That being said, both of those teams suck and they have some massive long-term problems. Let's sweeten up the deal a bit:

To the Bulls
-Ratliff
-Shaddy
-Smith
-Celtic and Heat 1st round picks

To the Wolves
-Ben Wallace
-Joakim Noah

Here's next year's rotation:

1- Telfair/Jaric/Foye
2- Foye/Brewer/Jaric
3- Gomes/(Beasley/Green/Budinger/Gallinari)/Brewer
4- Big Al/Big Ben
5- Noah/Big Ben

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.

Alright, that about does it. Until next time.

PS: Check out the new version of ESPN's Trade Machine.


Moving Forward

Back in December I wrote something to the effect of the Wolves will be lucky to win a game in February. Outside of games against the Clips and Sixers, it's a tough road to hoe. Well, after a nice .500 10 game run, the schedule gods have become angry and the Wolves are about to embark on a home streak from hell: Houston, Toronto, LA, Philly, San Antonio, Dallas, and Utah. Throw in road games against Cleveland, Toronto, and New Jersey and it's a tough, meaty month of ball.

With 36 games left to play, the Wolves hold the 2nd worst record in the Association. While the record is breathtakingly awful, they are starting to show signs of being a competent and consistent outfit that can be competitive with any and all comers. Most importantly, they are showing signs of life with the young talent that, hopefully, will make up the core of this team for many years to come.

That being said, whether Wolves fans like it or not, the team's ping-pong ball count matters almost as much as player development during this god-awful season. Unfortunately, future non-factor Theo Ratliff is reportedly headed back to the lineup and he, along with fellow future-non-factor (FNF) Antoine Walker figure to see significant minutes after the All Star break, provided hell doesn't freeze over and the Wolves decide that FNF's shouldn't be allowed on or near the court and they are traded (Ratliff) or benched (Toine). Since they seem to be resigned to let Ratliff's contract expire, just how far do the Wolves stand to fall in the upcoming draft?

Here are the teams within close range of the Wolves (wins in parenthesis):

  • LA Clippers (14)
  • New York (14)
  • Memphis (13)
  • Seattle (12)

What would it take for the Wolves to climb above these teams? Here's a couple of win scenarios for our beloved Puppies:

  • If the Wolves go 18-18 they end up at 28-54.
  • If they go 15-21 they end up at 25-57.
  • 10-26 nets them 20-62.
  • 5-31 leaves them at 15-67.

Looking at the schedule, the most optimistic scenario is 15-21. There is simply no way the Wolves are going to play .500 ball when the schedule is filled with Western Conference opponents in a tight playoff race. Let's cut the team some slack, acknowledge that they have made some improvement and write them up with between 10-15 wins for the remainder of the season. This leaves them with 20-25 wins on the year.

Let's be realistic/slightly optimistic and imagine that the Wolves can play @.300 ball the rest of the year (they're currently playing at a .217 clip). This adds up to about 11 wins. Here's how many wins the Wolves' competition would need to get to 21 wins:

  • Clips: 7
  • Knicks: 7
  • Memphis: 8
  • Seattle: 9
  • Miami: 12

Teams with 18 wins are completely out of the Wolves range. No team in the NBA is only going to win 3 more games in the season. It's simply out of the question. The worst case scenario for the Wolves is that they fall behind 5 teams and see a club like the Bulls or Philly move up into the top-3 of the draft; pushing the Wolves all the way down to the 7th pick. The best case scenario is that Shaq and D-Wade show some f'ing pride and get their team up to about 25 wins; Corey Maggette pulls through a few games in his contract year; the Knicks pull of a nice trade to rid them of some dead weight; and that Memphis and Seattle's young talent progresses on par with the Wolves' pups. My best guess is that the Wolves will finish with the 3rd worst record in the league, ahead of Miami and Memphis/Seattle. Ideally, the club ends the season with 22-23 wins (without using Ratliff and Toine) and the 3rd worst record. This would mean they would draft no lower than 5th. In other words, the Wolves can continue to improve, win games at a greater pace than they have during the 1st 1/2 of the season, and still end up with a high draft pick that will provide value to the squad. There is no need to panic or be worried about them winning too much. While it would be colossally annoying and maddening if Ratliff and Walker help eek out 2-3 wins, the team will still have a top-7 pick, which is high enough to collect value in the upcoming draft.

Mega Deal Monday:

OK, I'm going to take one more shot at it:

To the Bulls

  • Theo Ratliff
  • Craig Smith
  • Rashad McCants
  • 2009 first round considerations; either the Miami pick or the Bulls take the higher of the teams' top picks

To the Wolves

  • Joakim Noah
  • Ben Wallace

I can't tell you how much sense this trade makes. First of all the Bulls clear Big Ben's awful contract while gaining a talented young (albeit undersized) power forward and a talented young (albeit erratic) shooting guard that could somewhat protect them against the loss of Ben Gordon. It would also clear a whopping $25 million off the books so that they could work with Gordon and Luol Deng while also being major players in a relatively uncontested free agency season (Josh Smith and Emeka Okafor would look nice in red). Hell, the Wolves could throw in both the Miami and Celtic picks to make this work. After all, you can only carry 12 men on the active roster and we have no idea what those picks will bring whereas Noah is a known product. Smith, Shaddy, Ratliff's money, and 2 first rounders should be more than enough to get Noah and Wallace.

From the Wolves point of view, they pick up the perfect big man compliment to Al Jefferson: a big, unselfish, hustling, rebounder who doesn't need set plays to score and be effective. They also get a high-priced backup who will clear the books after the 2009-10 season. This trade would allow them to select a top-flight 3/combo forward in this year's draft. Here is what next year's rotation would look like if this trade were to happen:

  1. Foye/Jaric/Buckner
  2. Brewer/Foye/Jaric/Buckner
  3. Gomes/(Michael Beasley/Danilo Gallinari/Donte Green)/Brewer
  4. Big Al/Big Ben
  5. Noah/Big Ben

(Note: Ideally, they spend $3-4 mil on Bassy and keep him around.)

Most importantly, the Wolves would have a well-sized and balanced roster; a nice blend between shooters and glue guys. The 1-4 spots would all have a defender and a scorer to put out on the court and the 5 would be anchored by size and defense. You could go big and/or small; you could run or play slow 1/2 court sets...in short, you have the type of balance that makes for a damn-good and competitive team centered on a budding superstar power forward.

Salary-wise the Wolves would be on the books for $64 million across 12 active contracts in 2008-09. They would be over the luxury mark because of the Juwon Howard and Troy Hudson buyouts, but the @ $8 mil spent over $70 mil will be more than made up in the following 2 years. How? After Walker's money comes off the books in 2009, the Wolves will enter the 2009-10 season with @ $61 million spread across 12 contracts (to include the 2009 1st rounder). After that season, they will be able to take Big Ben's money off the books to the tune of $14 million. Not only would the team be stocked with young talent, but they will have enough talent to avoid large free agent gambles; instead building through sensible trades and priced-to-move veteran free agents. Glen's wallet will feel it for a single year, and it will feel it because of bought-out players (not guys on the active roster), but he will save money in the long run and end up with a superior roster/product than he would if they do nothing and let Ratliff's money expire.


One More Silver Lining

As if on cue, Fox News published this Which team is the biggest train wreck article shortly after Canis Hoopus wrote about how things could be worse…cough…Miami…cough.

According to the article by Randy Hill, there are 2, count them, 2 teams in worse standing than our beloved Puppies: the Heat and the New York Knickerbockers. Here, here. Yours truly really worries that the T-Wolves will end the season with a better record than both of these squads, thus reducing the number of ping-pong balls in the upcoming draft. That’s probably not the best thing to root for, but I did list maximizing ping-pong balls as one of the Wolves’ top 2007/08 priorities.

The Knicks are an interesting case study in badness. It’s not just that they have an uber-Kevin McHale (AKA Iron Range Ape) in Isiah Thomas or that they have massive amounts of dysfunction in their front office (see sexual harassment suit), but simply that they are so far beyond FUBAR’d with the salary cap that you really have to question the financial viability of taking on an additional $3-4 million dollar top-5 lottery pick in next year’s draft.

As it stands right now, the Knicks are locked into a stunning $91 million in guaranteed money in 2008/09. This money is stretched across 13 players: Stephon Marbury, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Quentin Richardson, Jamal Crawford, Malik Rose, Jerome James, Jared Jefferies, Nate Robinson, Renaldo Balkman, Wilson Chandler, David Lee, and Mardy Collins.

Now, the NBA roster limit is 15 (active is 12) and if the Knicks choose to take and sign a 1st round pick (likely in the top 5), they are looking at $93-95 million with 14 players. 2 of these guys will then get paid not to play.

The 2008/09 NBA Luxury Tax level will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $69 million. This means that for each and every dollar a team spends above this mark, they will have to match it in tax payments. For your New York Knickerbockers, this means a grand total of $24-26 million will have to be paid in taxes should they sign a top-5 draft pick, pushing their total effective payroll close to $120 million. Granted, the Knicks make a shiite-load of money but you really have to wonder if even the big team from Gotham has a spending limit.

I’m not saying that the Knicks would be willing to part with a top-5 draft pick for a trade exception, Theo Ratliff, and 1 bad contract (although that phone call should definitely be made), but I am suggesting that the Knicks are probably going to have a high 2nd round pick this year and and the next. They have absolutely zero incentive to turn 2nd round money into 1st round money against the luxury tax and their high 2nd round picks should come at a very low cost. If the Wolves are unable to acquire a mid-high 1st rounder for the Mark Blount trade exception, they should definitely make a call to the Knicks in an attempt to get a $1-5 million dollar player and the team’s next 2-3 2nd round picks; which they could then invest in foreign-born players or border-line 1st rounders.

After testing the waters with either a Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, and the Blount TE for Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, and their 1st rounder, or (more realistically) Ratliff for Richardson, Jerome James, and their 1st round pick, the Wolves should attempt to trade the Blount TE for one of the following players and the Knicks’ 2008 and 2009 2nd round picks, as they will have zero use for them:

  • Nate Robinson
  • David Lee

They should take back nothing less.

The Knicks are a terrible basketball team with no use for their high 2nd round picks. While the Wolves should definitely offer at least Ratliff for Richardson, James, and the 1st rounder, they should also be prepared to follow that up with a legit 2nd round deal involving the TE. As for the potential 1st round deal, ask yourself which is more valuable: paying $29 million over 2 years to Richardson and James or getting your hands on another top-5 pick? You could round out your starting lineup with a draft like that. Anywho, it’s just food for thought.

Until next time…